I have just watched the spring hurdle that Sir Erec won and I wasn't blown away. For him to be odds on I was expecting to something that was exciting and full of potential, and not sure I got that. I thought he dictated the pace, so good riding from Mark Walsh, but his hurdling leaves a lot to be desired. He clearly has an engine, but is that enough?
I know it is not an exact compare, but I wanted to compare the first and second on flat ratings. Gardens of Babylon doesn't have a rating, but he was a beaten odds on favourite on his last flat outing by six lengths. The horse that won that day has had two further runs and it has ended up with a rating of 81. Using that as a benchmark and probably being generous that would put GOB around 78-79. Sir Erec ended his flat career on 109, so a full 30lbs ahead of where GOB was approximately. In that maiden race, Sir Erec was second and the least favoured of the stablemates. He beat GOB just under six lengths.
In that Spring hurdle Sir Erec won by six lengths. With the difference in ability on the flat, I would have expected more than a six length win because it looked like Sir Erec improved, but if you take the flat firm literally, he has only improved by a short head.
I know a hurdle can be a great leveller, but I cannot see how you can have Sir Erec as not only a really strong favourite, but an odds on favourite.
I am not saying he can't win, but I don't understand why he is being made out to be the banker of the meeting or a big a cert as people are making out. The numbers don't stack up to me, what I saw in the spring hurdle didn't blow me away. At the price definitely worth taking on as there are some nice each way prices because of the way the market is structured.
Two I will have each way against the field are
Courier Sublime - 18/1
Hannon - 50/1