BEST of the BETS

Today’s Grade 2 chase at Navan (4:00)

This probably isn’t a strong renewal of the race, 3 of the last 4 runnings have been won by horses rated 161, 158 & 157. Today the highest rated is Bell Darc on 155, but he seems to have lost his way since his last win in November 2017, only had 4 runs since then but has not shown anything to suggest he is about to win soon. It will be a big shock if other Gigginstown runner Tycoon Prince can win from a mark of 138, so that leaves me with 3 market leaders to concentrate on and none of the 3 can be ruled out. I was very tempted to back Woodland Opera because of form lines with Jury Duty, who won for me on Saturday, Woodland Opera had easily brushed aside Jury Duty in a Grade 2 last autumn before finishing 2nd behind Road To Respect in a Grade 1. So his form is very solid, but a couple of little problems, one he is dropping to 2 miles after having won at up to 3 miles, though he has over 2 miles before and as he usually goes from the front he may make his stamina count by setting a stronger pace. Bigger concern for me is that he hasn’t run for over 4 months, and fitness can be a big factor in a tight race like this, and his target is likely to be the Punchestown festival next month where he has won twice before, so I think he may need the run. Willie Mullins has a good record in this race, having won it 3 times from 7 runners, and he runs Cadmium, who won the Newlands Chase (Grade 3) at Naas last time, 2nd behind him was 11 year old Doctor Phoenix who maybe past his best which makes me suspect the strength of form a bit. I think Cadmium needs to improve a little bit today, which is not impossible. I watched the last race (Grade 3 Red Mills Trial Hurdle) of my selection DARASSO, and I was very impressed at the time. He beat 144-rated Forge Meadow by 11 lengths, it maybe fair to say that FM wasn’t at his best but still he in turn was clear of rest of field, 4th horse Coeur Sublime has come out and finished runner up in Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. Time of race also suggests it was a very good performance from Darasso. So what’s the problem? Problem is that was a hurdle race, this is a chase and his first in Ireland, he had 2 chase starts in his native France and won both easily, though I am not sure of strength of form of those races. So it is a bit of risk trying to compare hurdle form with chase form, but I feel if he can run to similar level as his hurdles win last time he will win so I am prepared to take the risk.

Win bet on Darasso @ 13/8

Good luck.