BEST of the BETS

Thanks, Maxh.

So unlucky with Wicklow Brave (28/1) caught on the line, trading at 1.21 in running.

vul

Moving along nicely

Could have made a nice place pot with one to go

Didn’t do the placepot but unlucky with Praeceps (20/1) finishing 6th, I needed it in first 5 for my each way trebles (2 winners and 2 placers so far), just hoping Meticulous at least places in the last to still give me a profit.

4 winners today but prices were short so backing at level stakes would have showed a loss today, plenty of placers including at 28/1, 25/1 & 20/1

Scores at halfway stage

Top rated - 16 sels, 5 winners, +2.61 LSP
High distance - 10 sels, 3 winners, +8.36 LSP
Last race form - 13 sels, 0 winners , -13 LSP, this method has been very unlucky, at least 6 placers at 20/1+ prices but no winners
Course form - 6 sels, 2 winners, -2.39 LSP
Last time a Leopardstown - 14 sels, 2 winners, -5 LSP

Tomorrow’s (will update in morning if any changes)

1:30 - Real Steel (TR, LF), Defi Du Seuil (CF)
2:10 - Walk To Freedom (TR), Cuneo (LL)
2:50 - Road To Respect (TR, HD, LL), Monalee (HD, CF), Footpad (CF, LL), Frodon (TR), Un De Sceaux (CF)
3:30 - Paisley Park (TR, HD), Faugheen (CF)
4:10 - Janika (TR)
4:50 - Posh Trish (TR), Queenohearts (LF)
5:30 - Livelovelaugh (TR, LL), Treackle Tart (LF)

Un De Sceaux doesn’t qualify as a selection at the moment as it’s bigger than 5/1, no other changes from last night.

Results after 3 days

Top rated - 24 sels, 7 winners, +2.49 LSP
High distance - 14 sels , 4 winners, +6.74 LSP
Last race form - 16 sels, 0 winners , -16 LSP
Course form - 12 sels, 4 winners, +1.11 LSP
Last time at Leopardstown - 18 sels , 2 winners, -9 LSP

Current qualifiers for today

1:30 - Sir Erec (TR, LL)
2:10 - Thistle Do Nicely (LF), Cut The Mustard (LL), Eclair De Beaufeu (LL)
2:50 - Birchdale (TR), Derrinross (TR), Commander Of Fleet (LL), Rhinestone (LL)
3:30 - Clan Des Obeaux (TR, CF) Native River (TR), Presenting Percy (CF), Bellshill (LL), Kemboy (LL)
4:10 - Ucello Conti (TR)
4:50 - Brelan Das (LF), Minds Eye (LL)
5:30 - Early Doors (TR, LF), Dallas Des Pictons (LL)

Final results

Top rated - 31 sels, 8 winners, +1.49 LSP
High Distance - 15 sels, 4 winners, + 5.74 LSP
Last race form - 19 sels, 1 winner, -13 LSP
Course form - 14 sels, 4 winners, -0.89 LSP
Last time at Leopardstown - 27 sels, 2 winners, -17

Bit disappointing overall, but last race form method was very unlucky with a lot of big priced runners going close, it would have been profitable if done as each way. Only real disappointment was the Leopardstown method as Leopardstown form really didn’t work out well at Cheltenham this time.

Many thanks for a really interesting approach and detailed hard work
I noticed that speed six 'last time out' figures threw up some interesting possibilities
Also timeform 123 work very well for the first 3 days and produced about 4 or 5 tricasts in that order
Food for thought!
Perhaps now is a good time for colleagues on the board to record their impressions while they are fresh. I'm always trying to recollect some of the more painful learnings one year later!
I am still trying to figure out why Thursdays racing was not the most profitable in my extended history of wagering horses. 4 real fancies at generous odds but I for one failed to combine them.

Nobody has responded to my call for personal observations on the festival
Obviously you're all too busy picking winners?
But there are some insights alongside the pain and it may be worth recording them.
Take a look at today's racing Post a little feature on page 6 called "Recurring Theme"which could be the basis of somebody is 4th June next year!
In short the observation is that the ultima the Coral cup and Martin pipe were all won by horses who were beaten in the same race a year earlier racing on or near the same Mark having finished 3rd or 4th previous year.
David Jennings further observesthat of the 7 handicaps not confined to novices 5 were won by horses beaten in handicaps the previous year
He finishes the piece with a sporting proposal for the grand annual in 2020!
So hopefully akd will play again next year with this additional ammo.
Now forward to the small problem of aintree

Is 4th June= fortune

Interesting observations, Maxh, thanks for sharing. Looking forward to Aintree.