BEST of the BETS

Possibly another in that race THE CELTIC MACHINE 50s into 16s

Yes, CMB, I see TCM cut to 16/1 from 50/1 by bookies but virtually no money for it on exchange, only about £30 matched on it in total (£2 at highest price of 26.0). No more money for Shaji either since my post.

You could always lay back for a free bet.

Yes, Stainless, I would have done that if it shortened a lot, but it’s actually drifted out a little bit now as there has been very little money for it since that early cash in morning, it only has about 4% share of the market on exchange now. I could still lay it for a small profit but not really worth it as it’s only a small bet I have so I am going to let it run.

Into 9/1 minutes before the off.

No, it wasn’t, raced in last place most of the way and finished about 6th or 7th in end, I think. Still, getting 33/1 about a horse that went off at 10/1 is not a bad thing in long run.

Doesn’t matter what odds you get? Surprised I need to explain this. Of course it matters, let me put it another way, if you get 33/1 about a horse that has 9% chance of winning (which is what a 10/1 shot has) then it’s not good? Of course, 10 times out of 11 you will lose on a 10/1 shot, but it’s that one time you win you get paid out at 33/1, work it out.

Wby, I guess we will have to disagree on this. I am not trying to defend my selection, it ran badly, there is no argument against that. I am going through a losing run anyway, but I don’t get worried by them these days because I know losing runs are unavoidable and I feel I am better prepared for them now than I used to be.

The point I am defending is that if you can consistently beat the SP then it is a good thing in long run. For one thing, today I could have layed my selection at a lower price and guaranteed a profit, although I chose not to do that. But also because SP is a fairly true reflection of a horse’s chances, you might want to consider the following.

Looking at all the 10/1 (SP) shots in last 10 years (that’s over 60,000 horses at that price), 7.15% of them won, and it doesn’t vary much from that figure year on year. You will say that is lower than 9% that we should have got, but that is because of the over-round. Over-round is the reason we cannot break even backing every horse. If you want to get closer to true odds of a horse’s chance then you have to look at BetfairSP because that is the closest you get to a 100% book. Horses with BetfairSP of 11.0 won 9.34%, BfSP of 34.0 won 3.07% etc. You can ask me to check for any BetfairSP price for last 10 years and the win percentages will be very very close to what they should be. So from that it’s not hard to conclude, that if you can consistently beat BetfairSP, consistently being the key word here, you will make a profit in the long run.

Good thoughts I can see both arguments here.
If you beat the betfair sp you could in theory make a profit long term however you cant back them all and
sods law says you pick the losers . :fear:
interesting post

Good points but AKD is 100% correct. Beat the book and you will win long term

Agree with AKD. Value is everything and a side issue is that if you are constantly beating the book you know you are on the right track. a 2/1 winner can afford to lose twice before hes ground zero. A 16/1 winner can afford to lose 15 times. So if you are constantly backing 10/1 shots at 33/1 (with luck of course but lucks needed on a an odds on shot...ask Apples Jade!) , well it doesnt need explaining. Yes youve got to win or place but if you are on a 10/1 shot (at 33/1) the chances of placing , mathematically at least, are higher and youve got a fabulous reward, Gambles do win as we know, but silent gambles win more

I usually deal in prices 5/1 plus and they have to be value or i dont bet (or something exceptional like Champ). I imagine AKD is the same. If i think the 2/1 shot is 5/1 in my tissue i cant back it but if i think a 6/1 shot should be 3/1 ill back it. Its not rocket science.

Thats why you take losers on the chin. The bigger the prices, the longer the losing run, but the rewards enable you to build profit rather than just floating around break even on false short price horses.

you can sometimes apply this theory with trainers. Roger Varians for instance. invariably shorter than they should be, so ill target a race where he has a runner knowing there will be value in the rest of the field. he had a big rep runner on Tues (i think) that had achieved nothing but still went off 8/13 so backing the 2nd fav or 3rd fav at 4/1 and 6/1 wasnt too difficult decision as the tissue had the 4/1 shot at 6/4 , then Varians and the 3rd fav 3/1...value, and guess what the Varian horse gets easily turned over 9in fact it was third). Yes, he will also win (good trainer) but the rewards are poor as his stable dogs bark the loudest in Newmarket !

So value is not an exact science, but if your constantly getting value (and with a fair wind), you will make money

Agree with AKD and points well made Hippo!