BEST of the BETS

Poor selection in hindsight, didn’t help his chance by again not settling, probably would not have been good enough anyway but doesn’t seem straightforward. Again the horse highlighted as the danger wins.

Clonmel’s only flat meeting of the year today, and I have had a small bet in the maiden at 5:40

5:40 Clonmel - 73 rated Elite Trooper Grey sets a good marker, last year 72 rated horse finished 2nd, this year’s race possibly is a bit weaker despite greater numbers, and usually it takes a mid 70s performance to win this. So I think ETG will be thereabouts again and Willie McCreery’s runners have to be respected here and he has won with his last 3 runners here, there is just a risk that this horse maybe a bit one paced as he has placed last 3 times now. Kastasa for Dermot Weld could improve on her sole run last year but she really needs to and her price is based more on her connections than strength of her form. Bar Room Bore almost sprung a 50/1 surprise at Cork last week, and could take this if building on that run. But I have gone each way for VERY EXCELLENT (10/1) who has had a couple of runs at Dundalk, finishing 4th both times. 2nd of those runs was in same race as Pearlman, who won for me yesterday posted on other thread, selection was 3 1/4 lengths behind Pearlman but as this is a lower quality race than yesterday I feel he has a good chance of finishing in first 3. I am not sure about the draw here, and stall 14 could possibly be a negative. Pedigree suggests switch to turf could see him improve, his dam has produced 6 different flat winners and their record is a lot better on turf - 6 wins from 53 runs on turf compared to 0 from 16 on all weather. And his sire’s progeny also has a slightly better record on turf than AW. This is a long distance for Andrew McNamara to send his horses and he has had winners here over jumps, his only previous flat runner here won @ 7/2. So there are enough positives there, hopefully he will run well. Bar Room Bore is the biggest danger in my opinion.

Very Excellent, 0.5 pt each way @ 10/1

Good luck.

So close mate. Great 2nd

Thanks, Dodd. Yes, so so close, touched odds on in running. Nice drift to 14/1, and I am just relieved to get my first returns on this thread.

So close mate . Keep them coming :smile:

Balance = -12.10 pts

Backed one early for tomorrow.

3:35 Salisbury - nice handicap for 3 year olds and it was hard to decide between few potential improvers like Sash, GUILDHALL, Dark Miracle & Pytilia, all of these except the selection are last time out winners, Mayfair Spirit also won last time but he has had a bit more racing than others so may not have as much improvement. To my selection, Guildhall, he made his debut in a good maiden at Sandown last August, finishing 3rd @ 33/1, couple of lengths behind Walkinthesand, who was narrowly beaten in Feilden Stakes (Listed) last week. Guildhall has been sent off favourite on his next 3 starts, last time at Doncaster backed into 10/3 from morning price of 7/1, he was beaten 2 1/2 lengths in finishing 3rd of 9. But by all accounts, that Doncaster race was more competitive than tomorrow’s race, it was a class 3 with average rating of 79 (compared to class 4 with average of 73 tomorrow), horses finishing 1st, 2nd & 4th had all won their previous start and none of the 9 runners were rated below 75, whereas tomorrow 7 of the 12 are rated below 75, so I feel if Guildhall was considered favourite for that race he must have a good chance in this, and trainer has won this race before. One negative, there always has to be one, could be the draw. It’s not impossible to win from high draw here, but low draws can often dominate. Some of the lower rated horses tomorrow are making their handicap debuts so it’s possible they may improve but I think the winner is likely to come from top 4 or 5 in the handicap. Some may remember that I backed Cromwell at Lingfield last month, but he became a non runner. He shouldn’t be good enough to take this as it’s a stronger race, but has place possibilities from stall 2 as does Purbeck Hills from stall 1.

Guildhall, 1 pt win @ 9/2

Good luck,

Looks to have all the pointers of a good’un mate. GL

great write up AKD..... just had a look as low as 5/2 this morning.... b lucky... stevie....

No good, made favourite again but only 4th, sorry guys.

I thought it stayed on well enough but the first two had already gone mate.

You are right, Dodd, he did stay on, but still a bit disappointing that he has been beaten favourite last 3 times now.

5:50 Pontefract

Shortlist - Zapper Cass, Rickyroadboy, Deeds Not Words

Selection - Deeds Not Words (E/W)

Another tricky race, of the 3 that interested me Zapper Cass finished 3rd (of 7) from 6 lbs lower in this race last year, on other two visits here he has been unplaced too, all 3 times he had a poor draw but that is again the case today. He seems to have improved during the past year and Mick Appleby does very well in these apprentice races, including here at Ponte. Draw is the problem with him, and he is a huge drifter. Rickyroadboy is the only runner to never have won over the minimum trip, he has one way of running, all 3 of his wins have come when he has been able to lead, today it isn’t certain as there are other prominent racers too but they are drawn wide so he may get a chance from stall 2, and as it happens last 3 winners of this race all led from the start. Jockey is in form too with 2 winners and a 2nd from last 3 rides, trainer is 0 from 36 (12 placed) in apprentice races though and to me DEEDS NOT WORDS’ recent form looks stronger. Selection has not won over the minimum trip since his 2yo days but is having only 5th run since joining Tracey Waggot, and he has outrun his big odds last twice, finishing 3rd of 5 (28/1) in a stronger race at Newcastle and then 3rd of 9 (25/1) over this c&d last time, finishing ahead of Foxtrot Knight despite the latter having a better draw. Foxtrot Knight is 2nd favourite today, and he is respected because he won this race last year but on two recent runs he looks held by not only Deeds Not Words but also Zapper Cass (on Wolverhampton Run). Tricky race, but I think a similar performance to last time could see selection place at least as he is 1 lbs lower and also has slightly better draw than last time.

Deeds Not Words, 0.5 pt each way @ 10/1

Good luck.

Only 5th. I should have simply followed the draw, almost all the runners (with exception of runners from stalls 6 & 10 switching places) finished in exact stall order, always thought draw bias at Pontefract was underestimated.