BEST of the BETS

Braveheart Handicap

Mark Johnston and Jim Goldie have both won this race 3 times each, and they have got half the field today. Goldie runs Theglasgowwarrior and Employer, Employer looks up against it in this class but he is only 4 so not impossible that he could improve but he does need to improve a lot. Theglasgowwarrior has a good record here but was well beaten 4th in this race last year from 14 lbs lower mark, obviously he has improved since then and should go well but I feel he needs to find more improvement from somewhere, so I think Johnston has the stronger hand with his two. Charles Kingsley has ability to win a race like this but it’s a bit frustrating that he has finished 2nd last 3 times now, including here from same mark. He has a chance but not for me at such a short price. I feel there is a bit of value in Johnston’s other runner FIRE FIGHTING @ 9/2, 8 year old now which could be a negative as he has run poorly in a couple of big handicaps this season (had run well in same races last season), but he showed a return to form with a close 4th in class 2 handicap at Newmarket last time. He is down to his last winning mark and also dropping in class. My main reason for backing him is the going, his record on good to firm or firm is 7 wins from 21 compared to just 2 from 31 on good or softer, so he clearly prefers quick ground. One other negative is that he ran poorly on only previous run at Hamilton but that was also on good to soft, so I hope he runs better today. Luke Morris doesn’t ride for Johnston often, but he has done well on both previous rides on this horse, winning at Brighton 5 years ago and finishing 6th in John Smiths Cup, this is also the first time Morris is riding at Hamilton in over 5 years, he has a good record here with 6 wins from 27 for +19 LSP. Other one I considered at a bigger price is Ashington, having his 2nd start since joining John Quinn, last run in a stronger race is easily forgiven and he has the visor on for first time so expect him to run better. I would have been interested at 14/1 e/w but as he is only half the price now the value is gone so I will stick with Fire Fighting. Only a small bet as there are a few doubts.

Good luck.