• owenjohn
    137
    Following on from the relative success of my post using this approach earlier in the week, I'm having another bash today.
    HOWEVER, the 4 horses today are all long prices, so expectation is very low, with the hope of maybe bagging a couple of places, so here goes.....

    STAR CRACKER 2:30 Ayr @ 16/1 - A course regular, who was 2nd on this card last year over CD (same class, ground etc.)
    Was beaten a neck that day off an OR of 57 at an SP of 7/2.
    Today he is running off a mark of 49, 8lbs lower!
    Comes into the race from a recent win at Newcastle over 5f (up 4lbs for that win)
    This is the lowest mark that Star Cracker has run off at this regular hunting ground. Has only raced 6 times off mark of 49 or lower, yielding 2 wins & 2 2nds.
    Arguably the horse is more suited to 5 furlongs, but we know Goldie loves a winner/plot at Ayr. Watch closely if backed near the off.

    STRICTLY ART 3:15 Yarmouth @ 14/1 - for Alan Bailey
    2nd in this race last year off a mark of 61 (with Tim Clark claiming 3). Returns off the same OR today with Jess Cooley claiming 7lbs.
    Recent form has been poor, but if can return to a semblance of what he is capable of then he could be well in.
    Was an ultra consistent horse through 2017 & 2018 - 3 wins and 11 places from 19 runs!!

    WIDNES 3:45 Yarmouth @ 14/1 - Another for Alan Bailey.
    3rd of 7 in this race last year off a mark of 66, despite reportedly being restless in the stalls.
    Running off a mark 10lbs lower today (56), his career-low handicap mark.
    This is the gelding's 2nd run after a wind op (arguably a positive)
    Concern that the horse has only ever won once.

    PUDDING CHARE 5:05 Ayr @ 15/2
    Surprise 50/1 winner of a 1m1f apprentice handicap on this card last year, racing off an OR of 60.
    This year sees two division of the race over a mile, and Pudding Chare returns off a 6lbs lower mark of 54.
    Nealry half of all career runs have come at Ayr, so certainly knows the course!
    Has one of the better, and more experienced, jockeys in the race onboard in Toby Eley. He has ridden 3 winners from 11 rides in the past fortnight.
    Running off a career low handicap mark.
    Was not beaten far on recent re-apprearance run in a higher class affair at Hamilton.

    So that's it, there are probably also a lot of negatives for each horse but I tend to not focus on them!!

    n.b. The 3:55 at Warwick sees last year's winner and runner up re-oppose in MISTER UNIVERSUM & MYSTIC SKY.
    MISTER UNIVERSUM @ 7/2 runs off a 1lb lower mark than for the win last year, Harry Skelton is back onboard and the stable are on fire!
    MYSTIC SKY @ 20/1 is worse off at the weights with the above, but could be capable of going close again if on a going day.

    Good Luck with your selections today
  • owenjohn
    137
    Star Cracker ran a decent race at the price, but didn't see out the trip as per the main concern. Strictly Art well supported into 8/1 and nice 2nd beaten a length.
  • owenjohn
    137
    MYSTIC SKY reverses last year's outcome beating Mister Universum at 16/1!!!
  • rufusf
    16
    WD OJ !!! :grin:
  • moggy
    31
    Boom! Well done with Mystic Sky-got 22/1! thank u good luck with Pudding! :smile:
  • twobusty
    56
    boom well done
  • calvert
    377
    Thankx OJ
  • Mugz
    539
    Well done OJ, nice profit if you backed them all to win.

    :clap:
  • Doubler
    165
    Well done O
  • owenjohn
    137
    Cheers chaps.
    Star Cracker didn't give us a bad run at the price, in 6th, but the trip outdid him as suspected.
    Pudding Chare and Widnes were very disappointing, whilst Stricty Art ran a lovely race in 2nd beaten a length. Think that one will be back to winning ways very soon. Maybe one for the tracker.
    Lovely win for Mystic Sky, and a nice run by the Skelton horse just behind. I obviously backed the Skelton one and left MS alone! :lol: Glad to hear some were on though :up:
  • Rodeo
    255
    well done m8 . :starstruck:
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