I try to not look at prices until after I have made a selection, and having looked at this race I thought I had found an each way bet at a big price and when I went to put the bet on, I see the price has shortened to 6/1 having opened at 40/1. It’s true that it probably hasn’t taken much money to move the price in a small race like this, but on the exchange too it has taken 43% share of the total matched on this race so it seems that someone fancies it. The horse in question is JACOBITE RISING, he was beaten 40+ lengths on 3 quick runs since returning from injury, but has been given a 10 week break which offers hope that he may run better now. His only win to date came in a maiden hurdle at Worcester, beating a 121-rated horse, he seems very well handicapped judged on that form as he has been dropped 17 lbs since his return to be rated only 97 now, and he is also dropping in class and taking on horses that are mostly exposed and struggle to win races. Charlie Longsdon has a good record here and it’s his only runner today. It’s a risky bet as he needs to return to form, I would have liked to back it at 40/1 each way but that is gone. I will leave it till morning and see how the market is, I will have a small bet on it regardless, will back it win only if it remains short, if it drifts back to double figure price then I will do small each way.
Jacobite Rising needs to improve a good deal on what he's done so far since returning from a long absence. He's come down a good bit in the weights and I'm putting a tongue strap on for the first time this time round. Also I'll have him ridden much more positively, so if all those factors come together he could have an each-way squeak.
Thanks for posting trainer comments. It has drifted a little bit to be best priced 8/1 (Ladbroke), and market share on exchange has dropped to 17%. I have backed it each way now, only a small bet, hoping it will drift out a bit more and get placed at least.