BEST of the BETS

A big field low grade handicap, but there is enough form at top of betting for me to think the winner is likely to come from first few in betting so that’s where I am concentrating. Lustful was a well beaten favourite at Tipperary yesterday and may not run, will need to bounce back from poor effort if she does. I prefer MACHIAVELLI (5/1) who, although a 17-race maiden, is knocking hard on the door of late. On latest run 10 days ago, he was narrowly beaten in a similar race by another long standing maiden, but was a little unlucky and that run suggests today’s extra furlong will suit. He does have 1 1/4 lengths to find with Aasleagh Fawn on their running at Navan in May, when the pair finished 4th & 3rd respectively. That was hugely improved effort from Aasleagh Fawn on her handicap debut and she has a chance if she can back that up, but I feel my one’s consistency makes him a safer option especially as there isn’t much between prices of two runners, and Joe Sheridan’s 7 lbs claim could see him reverse the placings. Sheridan has only had 47 rides for 3 winners, but he has done very well on fancied runners for Denis Hogan, with 3 wins (8 others placed) from 16 (+3 LSP) on runners at single figure odds. Sbraase is also near top of betting, having his first run for Noel Kelly. He was an easy winner of a claimer last time but that was his first turf win in 31 attempts (has won 5 times on AW). Big Bad Sal (33/1) could be well handicapped judged on her 4th here last summer from 16 lbs higher mark and could run well if fully tuned up for this first run since October, but Aasleagh Fawn looks the bigger danger to selection.

Small bet on Machiavelli @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes offering 4 places for e/w)

Good luck.