BEST of the BETS

It was one of those were you think why didnt I just have a few quid on at that price.

:grimace:

Just think if it was in France these horses would be coupled :roll: But our bookies won't have none of it . I wonder why :mask:

To be fair he said before the race (to Matt Chapman) that Stratum had been out of form on the flat but had won a hurdles race lto " but clearly fancied the other 2 more. After the race he also pointed out one unshipped and Frankie had the co fav in the wrong place and gave it to much to do. thank good we dont have "coupling"...you seriously would be happy with the 25/1 shot being the same price as the co-fav or less? Plus dont they have to be in the same ownership to couple not trainer? (French prices are appalling and over round by huge percentages.It is the owner that forces the plunge on his horses (Tony Bloom) so im presuming he had very little or nothing on it. Also I think we all get caught up in conspiracy theories far too much. These top trainers with 100s of horses have 100s of owners to please too. All three owners wanted theirs to run, so he runs them. On current and known form, his three were rated accordingly in the betting but as you pointed out, Stratum was always capable and had the ability to win that race.

plus betting in these ridiculous handicaps ran over distances noone runs over all season, gets raided by jump trainers, raided by Irish horses who's handicap system is totally different from ours, plus running on ground only hurdlers had encountered before....well too be honest when you put that lot in a formular you must be stupid (me included!) to have a bet! Thats why i had a tiny bet on a 50/1 shot! anyone that plunged on Baldings ( i heard absolutely zilch from this non gambling trainer so must have been a bookies fake gamble that morons latched on to....moderate form, never ran on ground like that, never run the distance , trainer never won the race (well i dont think so) etc etc). Maybe thats why the result was 25/1, 50/1 50/1 and 33/1!!

i heard some idiot on telling becrying the Pinutubo race decrying how O Briens 2nd or 3rd string gave Pinutubo a race when they had lumped on Wichita!!! First of all, he took on the best 2yo ive seen in 25 year!!! (proved its class by still winning easily on awful ground) and O Briens "2nd string" won the Coventry for goodness sake! i offered to take the guys bets in future and give him an improved margin. despite him knowing ive got the means (and integrity) to pay him he turned it down! He said hed rather side with Hills (and its awful prices!)...i rest my case your honour!

ive said for years if you want horses to run to their exact form every time buy a scalectrix and dont go near animals!

handicaps are what they are. each horse, given good health, well trained, right ground, right course, right jockey can dead heat with any other horse in the race.

You may have noticed my selections are seldom short prices. I dont follow the sheep. Look at Ropey Guest on sat, i took 50/1. If you watched its Grp3 race before against Wichita, it was running a cracker and would have been closer if not hampered terribly just as it was quickening up...straight into my note book! The Fav at 5/2 beats Wichita (only its 2nd start) by 1 length. Now in my notes i noted that in my opinion Ropey would have been beaten by Wichita by 2 lengths max. Given that this was Ropeys 4th race at Newmarket (fav never had to handle dip before), the soft ground would fav more experienced horses and the big one....it was 47.5 points bigger in the betting than the fav, i had to have a bet. i also thought the trainer may be realistic and ride it for a place knowing it probably wasnt good enough to win...hey presto, ive got a bet! Thats how my mind works. i could thrown in that the fav had Crowley on its back which is a huge negative, running at Newmarket for the 1st time and on ground its nerer seen...throw in 2 Godolphin improvers and it didnt take me long to write it off. Thank goodness my thinking worked but i didnt have to risk much at 50/1 to get a good return ew.

Ive only given my thought process betting as an example, not to gloat. But im seriously worried about how people think when they bet. yes, its largely true that when its a favs day i generally lose although if i think its best horse in the race and is value (and yes 2/1 CAB be value) i have no problem lumping on. But seriously, either Baldings or Mullins at 9/2? The bookies were laughing at us and anyone that bet them needs sectioning!

Totally agree hippo, I tend to have long losing runs interspersed with things like Stratum, and the occasional AP punt like getting 50/1 Sizing John after the Thurles Jan meeting and listening to Jessica saying we'll go for the RyanAir, quote then in low single figures for that race... but thinking "come on" Potts not going to go for the GC, gotta be kidding!! LOL!! It is all about interpreting form, not going with the masses, and reading between the lines. Couldn't have had Buttercup or GW Shark, both looked weighted up to the hilt and no guarantee of improved performances on that ground, and there prices were wrong... thus Stratum, which I made at least anything around 20s as "value", so, as usual, kept my eye on the totepool and backed accordingly.
Was very interested to see that the Limerick National winner of Mullin's "Cabaret Queen" was bought in springtime for 13k at the Goffs Sales. Transferred from Skelton's to Mullins and now it looks like a bloody wonder horse the way it jumped and hacked up against some seasoned campaigners. Could have stuck top weight on it IMO and it would have hosed up, a simpler steering job Townsend could not have ever had. Not sure if this was simply a change of ownership or just an owner fancying a change of scenery, not delved into it too deeply, but it is clear that for Skelton, this is one that got away. Am trying to see where it is entered up for futures. Def one to follow unless this was it's sole "purpose".

And yes it is coupling by ownership not trainer in France, although mostly owners run under a single trainer, which is why some may have thought that.

Hi Micky

Yeah it is a minefield, but with the logic youve shown, the Stratums of this world can stick out (not withn me tho! Doh!..although to be fair i spent 2 mins studying as its of no interest to me). great tote spot too, which also makes me think Tony bloom was as shocked as the rest of us!

Now I dont rate Skelton at all (now im expecting a barage!). Hes a one trick pony a la Pipe in his early days. Get a horse, get them stupidly fit, run in poor races no matter what the odds and boast hes had 200 winners! His horses will rarely improved because he runs them at 120% fto. yes every now and again he may hit a jackpot or two, but thats because its a good horse DESPITE his training methods. And because of his ignorance and obsession with winners and stats he will let some good ones go, like Mullins winner. He thought it was poor because his methods didnt produce win after win. i bet Mullins stripped it bare and brought it back together again. Mullins horses are happy horses and well looked after (im not suggestion Skeltons arent) but he will get improvement where others cant thats why hes the master and Skelton the poor apprentice

I'm totally up that alley. I believe Skelton "graduated" from the Nicholls' "academy" of shisters. Nicholls' did my mate, since deceased, over big time. Was the owner of a mare Princess Hecate many moons ago, and my mate had it as a pointer, put it with Nicholls when he was starting up, didn't cut the mustard allegedly according to PN, was given peanuts for it and then miraculously it ended up in other colours performing astonishingly well. Make of that what you will, all I know is that that PN is not to be trusted.

Micky I took 12.1 on great shark and frankly that horse should easily have placed if Buick had attempted to put in a position early not sit out the back straight away you know your money's done. it finished 10th without breaking sweat.why it went off at 7.1 baffled me. in hindsight all mullins should have been backed. it won't be the only time they will have a few in a race and win
with the outsider. That's a given.

Peregrine

im afraid loads of horses suffered the same fate...thats what happens with 32 odd runners on a track with one turn. probably 20 hard luck stories and 10 or so not breaking a sweat. Mullins "criticised" the rides on both of his in the immediate interview on Racing UK saying "they were both placed far too far out back and both given far too much to do". i think an honest assessment. all 3 horses under different ownership so cant see collusion and coupling would have had no effect whatsoever.

Great White Shark: "Unseated rider 2f before arriving at start, held up in midfield, not clear run and shuffled back 5f out, switched left, right and tried to rally 4f out, no chance but plugged on to pass beaten horses from over 1f out (op 11/1)"

Buildmeupbuttercup: "Held up towards rear, closed 5f out, switched right and headway 4f out, chased leaders 3f out, no extra under pressure and beaten over 1f out, weakened final furlong (op 13/2 tchd 11/2)"

sorry mate, doesnt wreak of a fiddle to me. Also why would 2 Group 1 millionaire riders get involved in a tin pot coup? They earn more in interest than they would get out of a fiddle.

sorry mate, just a nightmare handicap that noone should bet in except a few quid to throw away (like my bet)....the result 25/1 50/1 50/1 33/1 would suggest that if there were loads of fiddles, they all lost. And back to my point...Tony Bloom does not suffer fools (jocked winston off for losing 1 race) and its obvious he and Mullins were as shocked as anyone that theirs won (thus the price...believe me if there was a coup Bloom would have been on big time and it would have been 9/4 fav ...remember Withold gamble?).

Just a forgettable race that needs forgetting and move on and if trainers run several in a race of course theres a good chance one will win. read Fallons book about Ballydoyle when he was there. he was TOLD which one to ride and often thought his price was stupid compared to a stablemate who probably had more ability. who makes these prices? the sheep ie stupid punters! Im very happy for Ryan Moore to keep riding hot favs while I pick up cash on Donacha and Seamie and wayne!

What I think is Buick was tired after all the effort he put in the race before on the mighty Pinatubo :rofl: And he had no energy left for a long race lol

Hippo no one has mentioned a fiddle only you. You have been in this game long enough and don't tell me it isn't bent. It's full circle on the all weather . And your contacts let you know when ones primed. Today Easterby had 2 in a race and which won the outsider. Didn't see the race so can't comment. But this happens all year round but trying to work out which are trying is another matter.No such thing as a certainty as we know let can happen in a race.remember bosra sham in a 5 horse race Fallon managed to get that beat.but we still like the challenge and get it right occasionally :roll:

Peregrine, oh i thought you were implying something was wrong by Mullins as his outsider win!!!! lol! No worries mate, we have differing views and opinions and thats what racing is all about. If we all thought the same the game would be easy!

Im not naive enough to thing the game is entirely fair. My point is theres no point "fiddling" in a big race...the rewards are there to see. Thats why a very good mate of mine only bets in Group races...no point fiddling! And he has made a living out of racing for over 30 years!

Stables like Easterby (all of them!!!), O Meara, Fahey, Boyle, Best, Michael Appleby et al are on my "swerve list". Cheating is ingrained in them like their Dads, uncles et al. I remember the legendary Colin Tinkler telling my uncle that in the Low Grade Northern Handicaps (like redcar, Ripon, Catterick), the Malton lads used to decide who's turn it was and could probably name the entire finishing order....before a race!! then SIS and televised racing came in and they had to be more subtle!!! No, not just a Northern thing! Geoff Lewis, Akehurst, Atwater, Boyle, Best etc are in the rogues gallery. One of the biggest chancers has finally been outed "Mr Brisbourne" and had to back the game ! And of course the master villain "Sir Mark" who gets names like "shrewd" "clever" "master of placement" "handicapping expert"....all clever words for "C H E A T"!!!

But then again, thats why these boys rarely win a group race or even run in one, thus fairly safe to have a bet.

O Brien is different. He has an embarrassment of riches and has to run several in one race because he can never run in handicaps because the handicapper wont let him. He got have Muffin the Mule and the handicap will give it 141! So he runs hundreds in gp races and of course the "1st string2 wont always win but when the "1st string" gets beat by another O Brien horse everyone cries foul! But on closer inspection it was only rated 2lb below the "1st string"! Whos cheating? noone! Who's a mug? The punter for backing Moore at 6/4 and not backing Hefferman at 33/1! If you go back to Royal Ascot i went near max bet on heffermans at 25/1 against Moore at 2/1 and won! I also gave reasons for my choice...Moore had never ridden the "2nd string" because it was a difficult horse at home and Hefferman is considered the better horseman. Result? hefferman wins! A few on here cried cheat, a few congratulated me on spotting the cheat! I hadnt! There was NO cheat! All i did was my homework and worked out Heffermans was a better horse and thank you very much for 25/1 while the mugs went 2/1 on Ryan Moore.

so yes, i agree there is cheating in racing, lets face it, anywheres theres money , theres cheating! If drugs were free, there would be no dealers! If there was no betting there would be no Easterbys (a man can pray!!)

Anyhoo, good discussion Peregrine, exactly what the Board is for

:up: Yes always some good constructive points made hippo :wink: