3:10 Naas - Willie Mullins has 8 out of the 16 runners in this field, although that itself doesn’t guarantee a win as last year he ran 9 horses in this but had to settle for places (2nd & 4th). As with most staying races, NH horses do have a good record in this and I like a couple of them in SAGLAWY (10/1) & DIAMOND HILL (18/1), both come into this on back of disappointing efforts last time but had been in good form before that. Saglawy was sent off favourite for the Irish Cesarewitch but was beaten 40+ lengths. That race has had a big say on this in past, in last 20 years of this race 8 winners had run in Cesarewitch on their previous start. A word of caution with that stat is that for most part of this race’s history it has been run over 2 miles (same distance as Cesarewitch), but is now run over 1 mile 6. Really interesting stat relating to Saglawy is that in last 20 years, only 7 horses that were beaten favourite in Cesarewitch have gone on to run in this, their record reads 1111842, that includes last Mullins’ trained winner of this, Clondaw Warrior who was beaten 20 lengths as favourite at the Curragh but went on to win this at 16/1.
I have done a small e/w bet on Saglawy at 10/1, and saver on Diamond Hill at 18/1.
Given a chance from the front but finished with more ahead of him than behind, poor run. Winner ex-Osborne horse, I think he has been tipped up on here in the past.