BEST of the BETS

Nice 1 AKD

:clap: :clap:
Nice one AKD

Thanks everyone.

5:00 Kempton - almost no form to go on, Balavad is the only one with experience having finished 10th of 12 over 6 furlongs here last week, although I think he will improve on that he was beaten too far back to be considered for a win. Mark Johnston has made a flying start with his 2 year olds with 5 winners already, so I respect his runner Nigh Moment but I feel it is too short a price at 5/4 so I am happy to oppose him. My selection is ROMMEL (13/2), Mick Channon gets plenty of 2yo winners this time of year. He hasn’t had a winner so far this season but of his 4 runners two were big priced outsiders, the 2 at single figure prices both made the frame, including one that was backed from 10/1 to 4/1 before finishing 3rd yesterday. This one has Charles Bishop booked, Bishop shows an overall profit when riding Channon’s 2yo newcomers (14 from 108, +3 LSP) but gets much better when they are fancied, 11 from 37 (12 others placed) with +19 LSP with those priced under 10/1, so strength in betting will be a good sign. Selection’s pedigree is not bad, first foal of an unraced half-sister to several winners including couple of black types. So there are enough positives there to hope for a good run.

Selection - Rommel @ 13/2

Good luck.

Green and too far off the pace, but got the hang of it late on to stay on nicely into 3rd. Very small profit if backed each way at early price and almost money back at BfSP (2.01 place)

LSP: +8.16 (win), +2.38 (place)

n1 m8 . :grin:

Thanks Rodeo.

2:00 Gowran Park - this looks a decent 3yo maiden, but also a tricky one. The two at top of betting have official ratings of 90 (Jungle Cove) and 84 (Maker Of Kings), but both of them had quite a few runs at 2 so could be vulnerable if there is an above average type among the less exposed runners. I wouldn’t put anyone off Jungle Cove though as the market is strongly suggesting that he is expected to go well today and he has a good draw unlike his main market rivals. But I am looking for an each way option, Emiyn is one possibility, he was beaten under 2 lengths in 5th behind Russian Emperor (who went close in the Derrinstown trial on Monday) at Naas last time, he could easily find enough improvement to be involved but market is not speaking positively at the moment. I have gone for one at a bigger price, BLIGH (11/1) is a risky bet as he does need to improve a fair bit on his 2yo form. He ran ok on debut when beaten 7 lengths in midfield in the Curragh maiden won by Wichita. He didn’t build on it though and was a bit disappointing here next time. I feel he will be suited by this quicker going though and is open to improvement. Joseph O’Brien has a very good record here at his local track, with 3 year olds in maidens here he is 3 from 21 (7 others placed), that is pretty good when you consider that 15 of the 21 started at double figure prices. There are a couple of negatives too, one the draw, two the stable form - they are 0 from 26 (only 2 placed) since the restart. So not confident, and I will be happy if he can finish in first 3 in this tricky race.

Selection - Bligh @ 11/1

Good luck.

Drifted to 18/1 and finished well down the field.

LSP: +7.16 (win), +1.38 (place)

1:15 Kempton - this looks a good novice and a few winners should come from it. There is very little on form between the top two, both won well on their debuts, I would expect Charlton’s to improve more and that is also reflected in the price. But it’s also a good race for each way backers as it’s double figures bar the two and something has to finish 3rd, and that’s what I am looking at. David Elsworth debuts Starshiba, who is from an excellent family, he is half brother to Barshiba (twice won Lancashire Oaks) as well as 5 other winners who won a total of 20 races between them, so he is worth keeping an eye for future. All of them were trained by Elsworth, but it’s interesting that none of them won on debut though 3 were placed. Another interesting newcomer is Expedient from Henry Candy stable, Candy’s runners usually aren’t given a hard time on debut and he doesn’t get many winners first time out even in maidens and less so in novices. In novices he has just 1 win from 53 on debut and that winner (Kurious) went on to win at up to Group 3 level. His record on Kempton debuts is 1 from 39 (that one winner was Limato). So if Expedient does win on debut then he will probably be quite decent. Candy also has another runner in the race and this one has had a run already, and is my selection LIGHT BAY (50/1), this filly finished 8th of 14 (beaten 5 lengths) on her debut here in October, form of that race hasn’t worked out great 0 wins from 26 but 8 have placed (some at good prices) so it’s not too bad, and as trainer’s runners improve a lot 2nd time I think this one could run better than her price. Negative once again is the high draw. Another interesting one is Karl Burke runner Total Distraction, who was well beaten on his debut at Pontefract last September but had gone off at quite a short price (4/1 from 14/1), he has been gelded since then it wouldn’t surprise if he runs a lot better today. So a good race to watch for future winners, my each way choice was between Light Bay and Total Distraction, hopefully I have chosen the right one.

Selection - Light Bay @ 50/1

Good luck.

Ran like a 50/1 shot unfortunately, poor.

LSP: +6.16 (win), +0.38 (place)

Poor selections last two days, hoping for change in fortunes today.

5:00 Leicester - although none of the 3 with experience were placed on their debuts, they all look open to improvement and I think the winner is likely to come from these. The one I like most is the John Quinn trained VIRGINIA PLANE (15/2). She was 3/1 joint favourite on the morning of her debut at Newcastle but drifted through the day to go off at 6/1 before finishing 5th of 12 (beaten 6 and half lengths). Today she is moving other way in market having been 14/1 in morning, and market confidence is usually important with this stable. There maybe other reasons for it but I found it interesting that Quinn had a more fancied 2yo in first at Donny (finished 3rd) which was ridden by Jason Hart last time, but today the jockey didn’t go to Doncaster and is at Leicester instead to ride this. Hart has been at Leicester only 3 times in last two years for total of 7 rides and won on two of them priced 10/3 & 7/2. Pedigree is a bit mixed, her two half sisters both also trained by Quinn, one was a poor 50s rater and other one Liberty Beach won 5 races at 2 including the Molecomb (Group 3). Quinn’s 2yos show improvement 2nd time, strike rate goes from 6.97% on debut to 11.97% 2nd time, improves to 17.53% (27 from 154, +13 LSP) with those that were beaten under 10 lengths on debut. So I am hoping she will improve enough to place at least.

Selection - Virginia Plane @ 15/2

Good luck.

Sorry, another poor run. Got that badly wrong as it was the 3 newcomers in first 3 places.

LSP: +5.16 (win), -0.62 (place)

4:15 Doncaster - favourite looks on a fair mark for her handicap debut, but I will again try for a big price as an each way option. PRECISION STORM (20/1) may not have as much improvement as some of the others as he ran quite a few times at 2, but he is one of only two distance winners in the race. He won a nursery off 63 over a mile at Kempton before finishing 2nd over same c&d off 69. On 71 now, so he does need to improve a little but it’s not impossible. Fitness has to be taken on trust but it’s the same for most of these, and trainer did have a 12/1 winner (ridden by same jockey) at Kempton last week.

Hoping for a good run, but again not expecting anything as it’s a big price.

Selection - Precision Storm @ 20/1

Good luck.

Another poor one yesterday, so that’s 4 poor selections in a row and maybe that’s affecting my confidence.

LSP: +4.16 (win), -1.62 (place)

I picked one today, but not sure yet if I will back it. It’s a short price and will see if it’s strong in betting or not.

2:10 Goodwood - 3 years ago, DE BRUYNE HORSE was beaten only 2 lengths when 2nd fav for Coventry at Royal Ascot, poor runs since then with various trainers that even included a brief spell over hurdles saw him drop to a rating in 60s. But a move to David Griffiths has revived him as he won a couple of low grade handicaps at Southwell before the break. On old form he is still well handicapped. Lewis Edmunds (who as mentioned on other thread has a very good record on short prices) takes the ride. Negative would be Griffths’ record with horses bidding for a hat trick, in handicaps only 1 out of 18 of his runners have gone on to complete a hat trick.

11/4 currently, will only back late as long as he doesn’t drift any more but will record it as a bet anyway.

Good luck.

Shocking run continues, DBH was stone last. But I will keep trying for now.

LSP: +3.16 (win), -2.62 (place)

One bet away from Ascot today.

5:40 Chelmsford - MONT KIARA (3/1) finished last of 12 at Lingfield last week, this is an easier race and he looks on a good mark as he is 6 lbs below his last win which came just over 6 months ago. Fairly unexposed over this trip, having done most of his racing over 6. Jockey on the cold list (I think this is her longest losing run since 2008), but most of her fancied rides have been running ok without winning. Caledonia Laird (with change of headgear) was also on my shortlist and could run well of fit enough.

Selection - Mont Kiara @ 3/1

Good luck.

Unplaced (3rd)

LSP: +2.16 (win), -3.62 (place)

Today’s selection - Castel Gandolfo (2:45 Gowran Park) @ 9/4

Good luck.

Closer yesterday, but still lost, good price on the place though (2.86)

LSP: +1.16 (win), -1.85 (place)

9:00 Redcar

My shortlist - Kensington Art, Lady Scatterly, Nataleena & Running Cloud

In a very open looking handicap, I have backed RUNNING CLOUD (9/1). Selection is not easy to win with, two and half years between his two wins (both at Wolverhampton), had won on debut this time of year in 2017 but then had to wait till January this year when winning at 25/1. This is a tougher race but he still looks reasonably well handicapped on last year’s form (8-9 lbs lower than when some fair efforts around this time last year). 0-14 (placed 4 times) on turf, but with exception of the veteran Be Perfect (11 times winner on turf) none of others have great turf records either. Not expecting much, especially with the form I am in, but hopefully run well.

Selection - Running Cloud @ 9/1

Good luck.

Winner & 3rd were from the shortlisted horses, but my selection was again very poor beaten a long way.

LSP: +0.16 (win), -2.85 (place)

Hardwicke Stakes - Elarqam is the one to beat with step up in trip unlikely to be a problem, but I am again trying to look for one that might run at a big price. This is a very long shot but I have backed EAGLES BY DAY (66/1), he has Royal Ascot form having outrun his odds in King Edward VII to finish 3rd @ 25/1. His dam was narrowly beaten in Gold Cup on her only visit here, and although his sire Sea The Stars never ran here, he has the highest strike rate at Royal Ascot with his progeny among those stallions with over 50 runners here. Jockey Daniel Tudhope has a very good record with big priced runners at this meeting, no winners yet this year but from his 8 rides he has had a 25/1 2nd, 33/1 & 22/1 5ths & 25/1 6th. Not expecting a win as he is only rated 108, and lowest rated winner of this in last 20 years has been 111, and he is also having first run of season. Only 9 runners now, and I have split my stake on extra place markets, 45/1 (4 places) & 28/1 (5 places), so as long as he can finish ahead of 4 horses I can at least get money back.

Selection - Eagles By Day @ 66/1 (3 places), 45/1 (4 places) & 28/1 (5 places)

Good luck.

Stone last. Other Sea The Stars horse in the race wins.

LSP: -0.84 (win), -3.85 (place)

2:15 Newmarket - good handicap, and I think the winner will come from top 3-4 in betting and that’s where I am concentrating. Form of KING RAGNAR’s 3rd over 6f here last time has worked out pretty well with the runner up easily winning a Listed race at Sandown next time. Step up to 7f shouldn’t be a problem so I think he will be thereabouts. It’s a competitive market so price should hold and I am hoping he will drift a little.

Selection - King Ragnar @ 11/4

Good luck.