BEST of the BETS

Drifted to 22/1, and never in it.

LSP: -1.40 (win), -8.30 (place)

5:15 Leicester - what a poor race, but most of these will struggle to win even at this level. It’s hard to believe but INDEPENDENCE DAY was getting placed at Group 3/Listed level at 2, a record of 2 from 39 and 2 years since his last win shows he fell a long way below that early potential. He is well handicapped though and on his day he can be too good for this lot, hopefully he will get the strong pace that he needs today. Wiff Waff is another that looks well handicapped. Dahik & Teepee Time both are badly out of form, between them they have run 5 times over last 3 weeks and beaten a total of 3 runners, but on ratings they can’t be completely ruled out in such a bad race. Independence Day looks the safest option to finish in at least first 3 though.

Selection - Independence Day @ 4/1

Good luck.

Non runner. No replacement.

LSP: -1.40 (win), -8.30 (place)

Amethyst Stakes (Group 3) - 5:25 Leopardstown

Sinawaan is a short price based on his 6th (beaten 5 lengths) in the Irish 2000 Guineas, trainer not in great form though, Mick Halford has gone 28 runners without a winner (4 placed), although only 3 were favourite including an odds on, not saying he can’t win but I feel the price of 5/4 is too short especially as the form doesn’t stand out that much. I am backing 2 against it, on a line through Agitare, CELTIC HIGH KING has a similar chance to favourite on last season’s form as both of them had beaten Agitare by exactly same distance over this c&d. He finished 2 1/4 lengths 4th behind re-opposing So Suave in handicap on reappearance and is 5 lbs better off so could go well if coming on for that run. O’Brien hasn’t won this race since 2002, though he hasn’t had many runners in this to be fair. Other one I like is MASTEROFFOXHOUNDS, previously with O’Brien, he made a winning stable debut for Jessica Harrington at Naas 3 weeks ago, form of that race is a bit mixed, 2nd, 3rd & 5th have been beaten at shortish prices but 6th & 7th have won. Harrington’s horses have been improving on 2nd start in past month, so good chance there is more to come from him. Her only previous runner in this race finished 2nd @ 6/1. Although you wouldn’t think draw would make a difference in small field over a mile, data suggests middle stalls are favoured (both my selections are drawn in middle), of 40 races over c&d with field size of exactly 7, 24 races have been won by the middle 3 stalls, on today’s going (good to firm) it’s 9 out of 13 (LSP +19) winners coming from middle 3 stalls. Of my two, I slightly prefer Masteroffoxhounds, but splitting stake equally.

Selections - Celtic High King (7/1) & Masteroffoxhounds (11/2)

Good luck.

Both unplaced.

LSP: -2.40 (win), -9.30 (place)

5:55 Gowran Park - 2yo 1 mile fillies maiden

Cycladic - dam won handicaps at 3 over 10-12f, but related to couple of 2yo winners including Unnefer who turned out to be Listed/Group 3 class over 8-10f. Stable 2 from 19 on 2yo debuts here but it’s worth noting that only 3 of those went off at single figure prices and they finished 113 (winners priced 7/1 & 6/1)

High Heels - related to couple of maiden winners over a mile, but both wins came at 3, dam also didn’t win until she was 3, so may need more time. Unfancied 40/1 shot on debut at Curragh 10 days ago, and finished last of 9.

Malaysian - dam won over 6 furlongs at 3, related to winners at up to mile and half but at a very low level. Pedigree lacks the class of few others in the race.

Shale - sister to Berkeley Square & Celtic High King, both maiden winners at 2 over a mile, dam a surprise winner of 1000 Guineas in 2012, had won up to Listed level over a mile at 2. Only 6th of 7 on debut at Leopardstown 2 weeks ago, but likely to improve.

Speedy Pix - related to 2yo winners but at a very low level and over sprint distances, dam related to several winners but mostly at up to Class 4-5 level. Finished tailed off on debut last month.

Umneyaat - Dam unraced half sister to Galileo Rock (placed in English and Irish Derbies and in St Leger), Saddlers Rock (winner of Doncaster and Goodwood Cups, placed in Ascot Gold Cup), Tarfasha (placed in Oaks), and to other winners over middle to staying distances. Galileo Rock, Tarfasha and Allexina all won over a mile at 2 in summer maidens. She is a clear pick on pedigree. Stable has a good record in 2yo maidens here although much better record is on 2nd outing.

Weight of money behind High Heels makes this tricky race even trickier, till this morning nearly 90% of money matched for this race on Betfair had been for High Heels, it’s dropped to 64% at the moment. It has meant that both Shale and Umneyaat are very weak on the exchange. I really liked Umneyaat on pedigree but if it keeps drifting then that would be offputting backing it first time out. Jessica Harrington’s runner CYCLADIC’s price is holding up well, and she usually has them ready (backing all her 2yo debutants that are priced under 10/1 shows overall profit), so I am hopeful this one will run a good race at least.

Selection - Cycladic @ 7/2

Good luck.

Only 4th, behind the impressive winner Shale.

LSP: -3.40 (win), -10.30 (place)

Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed) - 1:50 Newmarket

Al Suhail - beat only one home in the 2000 Guineas last time, but has earlier c&d form finishing a close 2nd in Group 3 Autumn Stakes (perhaps he ought to have won that race). Return of William Buick is a plus. Trainer 0 from 5 (2 placed) in this race though. Likely to be thereabouts.

Emaraty Hero - yet to get close enough in 3 maidens/novices. Has a mountain to climb here from rating of only 77.

Lord Campari - finished 6th on debut behind Palace Pier (Group 1 winner), and bolted up in a novice race over a mile at Newbury last month, 2nd (handicap off 88) & 3rd (maiden) have both won on their next run. So form looks strong, and he is open to any amount improvement after just two runs. Price maybe a bit short though on this step up in class against horses who already have Group race form.

Magical Morning - defied a penalty to win his 2nd novice in a month. Form of Yarmouth race is working out just ok, like Lord Campari he is also open to improvement but it is a big step up in class.

Mystery Power - Hannon won this with Tupi in 2015 following his 4th in the Jersey. This one beaten too far back in Jersey on reappearance and also well beaten final start last season in Dewhurst. Both those on soft going, maybe better ground today will help and is stepping up to a mile for first time, so wouldn’t completely rule him out but does need to bounce back to form.

Ropey Guest - Running reasonably well in Group 3s, including a 4th in the Jersey last time, but was beaten 7 lengths by Al Suhail here in the Autumn, and it will be a surprise if he can turn that around.

Separate - only filly in the race, well beaten on both previous tries at a mile but both were in testing conditions, worth a try to see if she stays the trip on this better ground. Has a good record here, including a close 3rd in Oh So Sharp (Group 3). Unlikely winner but could run better than her price of 66/1.

Tilsit - won by 19 lengths on 2nd start at long odds on, but had nothing to beat. All other horses making the frame had been beaten by wide margins in all their previous races, this is a very different test. Makes turf debut after both runs at Newcastle.

This is proven Group form vs potential. Lord Campari could be anything, but price is too short. I prefer AL SUHAIL, who is proven at this level and over c&d, hopefully he can live up to his rating of 112. Mystery Power would have a chance if bouncing back to form and improving for step up in distance, and Separate is a possible in extra places market.

Selection - Al Suhail @ 7/2

Good luck.

Nice one followed you in at 3.1 :cheer:

Very easy winner, well done AKD. :cool:

Thanks guys.

Betfair SPs of 3.79 & 1.40

LSP: -0.75 (win), -9.92 (place)

Good runs from Hannon’s pair Mystery Power (2nd) & Separate (4th) too. More than the winner, it’s satisfying having read the race fairly accurately.

well done m8 . :smile:

:cheer:

Thank you.

12:30 Market Rosen - 2 mile 5 1/2 f handicap hurdle (class 4)

Floral Bouquet - won a couple of mares novice hurdles in 2018 (both wins on soft), but generally struggled in handicaps since then. 5 lbs lower than when beaten 5 lengths here in Feb 2019, that at first glance gives her a chance but it was a mares only race. On positive side, fitness isn’t usually a problem with trainers runners, but she doesn’t yet seem well handicapped enough to win, especially against geldings.

Fresh New Dawn - only win from 12 runs came after a year off and on first run after a wind operation. Often gets placed, but win record is very poor considering he has been in first two or three in betting for most of his races. On same mark as when beaten 2 lengths over couple of furlongs further here in February, staying on late so drop back in trip doesn’t look a positive. Trainer has a good record here though. Wears a tongue tie for first time and that will need to bring about improvement for him to win.

Fubar - finished 2nd in a bumper on debut here behind Earlofthecotswolds (who has been rated as high as 140). Not gone on from that as he is 0 from 7 but this only his 2nd run in a handicap (well beaten first time but it was on heavy going), so too soon to write him off.

Gavrocheka - bumper winner in France, but has finished 2nd on all 3 hurdles starts in UK, two of them as favourite. Has gone up another 1 lb since her last defeat. Open to improvement as she has only 3 runs, but for me there are enough negatives to not take a short price about her.

Higgs - having 4th start since joining Dr Richard Newland, short price when finishing close 3rd first time, disappointing next two runs on soft going. He does look well handicapped on some of his form for previous trainer, so definite place chance if fit enough.

Sebastian Beach - back to his best when winning by 11 lengths over 3 miles at Southwell last week, and is turned out quickly under a penalty (due to go up another 5 lbs in future) in a winnable race. Drop back in trip slight concern, but track should suit his front running style. Good career strike rate with 6 from 34. One to beat if in same mood as last week.

Vancouver - last handicap win in Oct 2017 (did win a seller last year). Well handicapped on old form as he showed when going close @ 40/1 at Wincanton when last seen, but has run very poorly on all 3 previous visits to this course. May run bit better this time, but overall profile doesn’t suggest he can win this first time.

Wasdell Dundalk - non runner

SEBASTIAN BEACH is the only one race fit with all others returning from a break, and I think he has to go close if backing up his last run. Fubar & Higgs are main dangers in my opinion, and I will do a forecast with them.

Selection - Sebastian Beach @ 7/4

Good luck.

Very disappointing, finished last.

LSP: -1.75 (win), -10.92 (place)

4:35 Salisbury - 4yo+ 6f handicap (class 5)

Alfie Solomons - not won since 2yo days, 1-22 overall, 0-16 at distance. Has kept dropping in weights, 15 lbs lower than this time last year, but not running well enough to suggest he can take advantage of that in a competitive looking race. 2 1/2 lengths behind Spanish Star on same terms last month.

Doc Sportello - non runner

Fashionesque - won on seasonal return at Windsor last month (gambled from 10/1 to 10/3 fav). Up 5 lbs for that but she is lightly raced with just 6 runs (finished out of frame only once), she is one of the possibles as long as today’s quicker going isn’t a problem.

Gilt Edge - placed well to complete a hat trick of wins in low grade handicaps last summer but has since struggled off higher marks, still 1 lb higher than last win and she probably needs to drop to lower class than this.

Handytalk - c&d winner last year from same mark as today but on very different going (soft). 1 from 14 on good to firm, 1 lb lower than that win at Ffos Las last year. Record of 1211 in class 5. So a few positives but the big drift in market is a worry. Place chances.

Harrogate - more exposed than a few others, but likes quick ground. 6 lbs lower than his last win exactly a year ago. Recent form is poor, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he ran well at a big price on his favoured going.

Little Palaver - last 3 wins have been on all weather, but he is another one who likes these conditions. 3 win and 3 places from 11 runs on good to firm. C&d winner but that win was a long time ago, 3 lbs higher than when 6th of 17 here on g/f last season.

My Style - yet to win, but had only 6 runs so improvement can’t be ruled out. He was nearly 5 lengths behind (3 lbs better off today) Little Palaver last time though and is a much shorter price than that one.

Queen Of Burgundy - both her wins have come on good to firm, but beaten almost 20 lengths on her return, also well beaten final start last season so has a bit to prove.

Rewaayat - 2 wins from 10 and still open to improvement, but has also been beaten favourite 3 times, not as consistent as his main market rival. Won on good to firm last year but in a lesser race.

Soldiers Son - 0 from 9 (placed twice), and 1 lb higher than when 3 lengths 2nd here last season. Short enough in betting, but looks unlikely winner.

Spanish Star - won 3 times last season, ran ok at Newbury on his return but only 6th at Windsor next time. Has been dropped 1 lb but still remains 1 lb higher than last win. Has place chances, but may need bit more help from handicapper before winning.

The Night Watch - finished 2nd behind Oxted (won Group 3 Abernant Stakes last week) over 7f in a novice here last season but has lost his way since then. Let go by William Haggas, and has been beaten a total of 65 lengths in his last 3 races. Difficult to see him involved with recent efforts like that.

Waseem Faris - non runner

Very competitive race with a few unexposed runners at top of market, Fashionesque looks best of these. But I am looking for an each way option from bigger priced runners, Handytalk and Little Palaver are a couple that could run well and maybe Harrogate too. Went with HANDYTALK despite the big drift (opened the day day at 7/2, now 10/1).

Selection - Handytalk @ 10/1 (some bookies offering 4 places on e/w)

Good luck.

Good write up AKD

Thanks Finley.

Handytalk drifted even further to 16/1 and finished only 6th.

LSP: -2.75 (win), -11.92 (place)

Short of time so not doing a write up today.

5:15 Cork - COLFER ME (20/1) finished 2nd @ 66/1 in the Irish Lincoln on stable debut, was 9 lengths ahead of Lord Rapscallion that day and is 7 lbs better off now, LR is only 7/1 today. Down the field at same course next time when trying to make all, but hopefully will run a similar race to the one he ran first time.

Good luck.

Missed the break and never better than midfield.

LSP: -3.75 (win), -12.92 (place)

4:00 Roscommon - 2m 1/2f Chase

Divin Desir - 30-race maiden, rated only 80 over hurdles so faces seemingly impossible task on chase debut. Trainer 0 from 28 on chase debuts (but 3 placed at big prices), interesting jockey booking of Danny Mullins. Trainer/jockey have combined only 20 times before, no winners but 5 big priced placers, including 2 places from 2 runs here at Roscommon at prices of 50/1 & 25/1. So maybe worth considering in the extra places market (60/1 3 places & 20/1 4 places), but even for that he probably needs a couple of others to run below par.

Email Rose - got his first hurdles win at 8th time of asking and is sent chasing now, likely to make a better chaser and is in right hands. Henry de Bromhead 21% strike rate (37% with those priced under 5/1) on chase debuts. Value seems to have gone now, considering he has to improve a fair bit to beat the fav.

I’m A Game Changer - 4 times winner over hurdles for Philip Hobbs, yet to win from 6 runs over fences (placed 4 times including in Grade 3) but this is arguably his easiest task yet. Rated 141, one to beat if he can run to that rating.

Make My Heart Fly - only chase winner in the field, won a beginners chase over 2 and half miles at Kilbeggan, so has to carry a penalty for that and give weight to her stable mate who is rated 20 lbs higher than her. Place chances, will need both the market leaders to disappoint to win.

Scheu Time - rated 129 over hurdles, and has been tried at Graded level. Trainer 0 from 15 (3 placed) on chase debuts including 6 that went of at single figure odds. Can’t be completely ruled out for win, but looks more of a place chance.

Stormey - 0 from 11 over fences (has placed 5 times though). Has a decent record at Galway festival, and one of the races there again likely to be his target, so this looks a prep race for him.

It’s hard to be very confident about him, but I’M A GAME CHANGER looks the most likely winner, and now there isn’t big difference in his price and Email Rose’s who needs to improve. I considered backing Divin Desir for 4 places but gone with the favourite.

Selection - I’m A Game Changer @ 11/10

Good luck.

Yet more rubbish, sorry. Elliot’s 2nd string wins at 14/1.

Might be time to drop this project with a loss.

LSP: -4.75 (win), -13.92 (place)