It looks a tricky day, so keeping stakes low. Done these in a lucky 15, all of these look to have place chances at least so done each way.
6:20 Sligo - tricky race, it’s possible to make a case for all of the top 3 in betting. Nero Rock comes clear at the weights due to his 8 lbs allowance, but he has failed to take advantage of similar scenario before, wouldn’t rule him out though. Bal De Rio has has 13 starts over hurdles, and finished 2nd in 8 of those, and comes here on back of a good 4th on the flat at Galway. But I have taken a chance on GUN MERCHANT (2/1), not as consistent as BDR but has had less runs (7 starts over hurdles with only 1 placing), interesting that he was sent off 4/1 joint favourite for a strong handicap at Gowran last time. Although beaten 18 lengths, that is strong form as the winner placed in Grade 2 handicap at Galway from a 16 lbs higher mark next time and runner up also placed at Galway from 5 lbs higher mark. Gordon Elliott string seems in good form, 5 winners from 13 with those in first 3 in betting over the past week, admittedly 3 of those winners were in bumpers. On official ratings, he needs to improve a bit to beat the other two but I am mainly going on the last race as I feel it wasn’t a bad effort in a strong race despite finishing only 6th.
3:40 Ayr - very difficult choice between Inductive and SIENNA DREAM (7/2), both in good form at the track, latter is already proven on soft and that’s what swings it in her favour.
5:50 Sligo - ROYAL AIDE (9/4), very nicely bred, mile and half winner on flat from mark of 92. Placed twice from 5 hurdles runs, this is unknown territory distance wise but pedigree suggests he will stay, good chance of going close if he does.
6:50 Sligo - DOLLAR VALUE (8/1) won the maiden hurdle on this card last year (jockey also won this race last year), his only hurdles win to date but return to that form will give him every chance in this. Had been in good form this year before disappointing on the flat last time. Chasing Abbey is one of the dangers, he is pretty consistent and turns up just 2 days after his latest race, with a good conditional on board.
Royal Aide (10/3) the only winner, Sienna Dream 3rd, so only got about a 1/3 of my stake back. Maybe bit unlucky with Gun Merchant narrowly missing out on a place and Dollar Value not even placed despite going as short as 11/10 in running to win the race, if those two placed it would have made a big difference.