BEST of the BETS

4:50 Salisbury

Alfred Boucher - easy winner of a 3yo handicap over a mile on soft here around this time last year. Likely to run well again but still 2 lbs higher than that win so I think he needs to improve a little bit. Henry Candy has an excellent record here, especially in handicaps, 7 winners (and 2 placed) from last 12 runners (+23 LSP) in handicaps at Salisbury, he runs two in this race.

Aquascape - well beaten at Goodwood last time (had run well there previously), needs to improve but has had only 5 runs so can’t be completely ruled out as he had shown consistent form prior to last run.

Berkshire Savvy - badly drawn at Chester last time but had solid form before that at Windsor (won) and Goodwood (placed), has to be on the shortlist.

Canal Rocks - 2nd of Henry Candy runners, quite rare for this trainer to have more than one runner in a race. In last 18 years, there have only been 31 times when he has run more than one in a handicap, and done well with 8 wins (6 with 1st string, 2 with 2nd string). This one is only 1 from 16 but placed another 5 times. Beaten 11 lengths on only previous run at this distance (Leicester, June 2019) but that was quite a hot race, I think he is worth another try stepping up in trip as it could see him improve.

Lightning Attack - won at Southwell off 5 lbs higher last year, but last 4 runs have seen him beat a total of 2 runners, very difficult to fancy in current form.

Luckys Dream - completed a hat trick of wins on all weather but well beaten on return to turf. Only 5 year old in race against the younger horses, some of whom are likely to improve so faces a tough task. Interesting jockey booking though, Kingscote has 21% strike rate (+69 LSP) for Ian Williams.

Mascat - ran in the Hampton Court (Group 3) on only his 3rd start, beaten 9 lengths. Down in trip and class, and only had 5 runs so far so shouldn’t be written off yet but others are better drawn today.

Nasraawy - finished 2nd all 3 starts, latest in a maiden handicap, well clear of the 3rd horse so form looks solid enough, has a wide draw to overcome though.

Ragnar - won a handicap over this distance at Sandown for Roger Charlton from 5 lbs lower mark. Made a disappointing start to hurdling career by failing to complete on both starts. Makes his return now having had a wind surgery, and is an interesting runner. Jamie Spencer is riding for Hobbs for first time in 7 years, but their combination has a good record with 7 wins (and 10 places) from 35 (+10 LSP). Hobbs doesn’t run many on flat, on average only about 5-6 flat runners a year but he does quite well with them especially from August to October before running them over jumps.

Sandyman - perhaps a fortuitous winner last time as the favourite unseated when in the lead, 6 lbs up for that win makes things harder as does the high draw.

Sophosc - well behind Sandyman last time, and impossible to see how he can get close. It’s been a while since he finished out of last two.

Tahitian Prince - beaten nearly 3 lengths by a 73-rated filly last time, which doesn’t suggest mark of 77 is a lenient one on handicap debut. Should come on for that run though and could improve for step up in distance.

Tell William - consistent sort, having made the frame on last 7 runs, but very poor as favourite the last time he ran at Salisbury (7f on soft). Also has wide draw.

Very competitive race and difficult to even get it to a short list. I got it down to Aquascape, Berkshire Savvy, Canal Rocks and RAGNAR as possibles for me and decided to have a small bet on Ragnar @ 12/1. Little saver on Canal Rocks @ 20/1 because of trainer’s record here and also as I think he could improve for stepping up in distance.

A couple of others that I think may run well and have put in e/w patent with Ragnar

2:30 Newcastle - Sea Mood @ 12/1
7:10 Clonmel - Fongs Way @ 18/1

Not expecting much as all are big prices, but hopefully run well.

Good luck.