BEST of the BETS

Ardera Cross - 9/1 and was struggling before unseating in this race last year, it will be a surprise if he can do much better in what looks a stronger race despite being 3 lbs lower.

Cool Mix - winner over hurdles here, only 1 lb lower than when 2nd of 4 in a novice handicap over c&d (November 2018). He will be suited by the course but doesn’t look that well handicapped and is having first run since January. Has had a wind surgery and that needs to have improved him.

Double W’s - has been given a chance by the handicapper after a couple of well beaten runs this season. 1 lb lower than when sent off short priced favourite for a similar race to this here in May 2018, but a bad mistake cost him all chance and he ended up well beaten. Not completely ruled out but others likely to have more improvement.

Forecast - another one wearing cheekpieces for the first time. Only 4th run since joint Dr Richard Newland, and 5th over fences so still unexposed. Fell at Perth last month when sent off favourite, 3 lbs lower today. Drop in trip maybe a slight negative. Trainer is 6 from 15 (+7.67 LSP), including 4 from last 6, at Kelso (also has the favourite in 4:10 race). Makes my short list despite the big drift in betting.

Fort De L’Ocean - only 5yo in the race and open to improvement. Easy winner of a 4 runner handicap at Cartmel, but this is tougher. I don’t think he can win this but has place chances with likely improvement.

Havana Hermano - I believe this is Stuart Edmunds’ first ever runner at Kelso, and has travelled a long way. Won at Uttoxeter on his 2nd start over fences but this is stronger and he is up 6 lbs. Struggled off similar marks over hurdles, not ruled out as he is open to improvement but price looks short enough in a competitive race.

Lake Takapuna - first run since February, but that usually isn’t a problem with James Ewart as he can often get winners first time after a break. Only 2 runs for trainer since coming over from Ireland, well beaten both those runs but is now 11 lbs lower and also has had a wind operation since last run. Has been running over 2 and half but won around this distance not too long ago so that shouldn’t be a problem. Trainer also has a good record here, so plenty of positives.

Monsieur Co - won over c&d (January 2019) in a 4-runner handicap. Course form is always an advantage here, and he is 1 lb lower than that win but this is a much better race.

Competitive race, can make a case for 5 or 6 of these, and the betting is really interesting with a few drifting and others shortening. Havana Hermano was too short at 2/1 but will be interesting if he continues to drift to an each way price. The two that are possibles for me at the moment are Forecast and LAKE TAKAPUNA, and they are moving in opposite directions in market. I slightly prefer LT, and have had a small each way on it at 8/1 with a saver on Forecast.

Bets - e/w Lake Takapuna (8/1), saver on Forecast @ 6/1

Good luck.