Favourite Aggy With It has a good chance but I feel the difference in price between her and ZARRAR is too big. Selection has not done much wrong in defeat last twice, he has just been a bit unlucky to come up against good horses. He was giving weight to a 127-rated horse when beaten 7 1/2 lengths at Ludlow and then giving weight to a 122-rated winner at Kempton (beaten 5 1/2 lengths). He again has to give weight to the favourite but this time that horse is rated 119, so in theory it should be a bit easier this time. Fitzroy is rated 122, but I feel he maybe a bit flattered by finishing close to Flic Ou Voyou over c&d last year. Force Ten also can’t be ruled out as he is unexposed having had just 1 run over hurdles but he does need to improve. Front running Zarrar has hit a low of 2.42 and 2.02 in running last twice, so he will hopefully give a chance to trade in running at least.
Small bet on Zarrar at 4/1, will consider trading if he goes odds on in running.
Have to say, the exchange market is strongly speaking in favour of the favourite with nothing being backed against it. So I will definitely be trying to trade out Zarrar even if he goes 2.5 in running.