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Saturday 7.20

Lady of aran 2pts e/w 12/1


Kempton Saturday…
7.20 Lady of Arran currently 14/1
The deeper I look into this race the more I like Lady of Aran, I know backing a filly can be tricky but her course form is nothing short of amazing. At 14s she is the outsider of the field and in my opinion is the one to be on e/w.
Lady of Aran is currently rated 82. Georgia Dobie rides and takes off 5lb reducing that to 77. She has ridden the horse four times resulting in form figures of 9441 The ninth finishing position was in a 12 runner listed race at Newmarket where she was only beaten 8 and 1/4L. The race was run on soft ground which would not have suited Lady of Aran.

Let’s have a close look at her form
Lifetime form 4212/7934201032/2937441958-
Allweather form 421223229358
Kempton 7f form 122323
That’s six races at Kempton, winning one and 2nd or 3rd in the other five races never beaten further than two length’s in any of them. I mentioned the jockeys 5LB claim as it takes the fillies mark to 77. Lady of Aran has raced at Kempton twice when rated under 80 resulting in form figures of 22 beaten a shd and a hd

Sire
Sir Prancealot 683 /66 wins (9.66%) 199 places 29.14%)


Jockey Georgia Dobie has not got a great win record at the track 147/19 (12.93%) however 44 places (29.93%) is decent indeed.
Trainer Charlie Fellows last five year record at Kempton is 173/18 (10.90%) and 56 places (32.37%) is a decent strike rate .
trainer is a co owner, keep an eye on the betting n way should this be 14/1

Timeform’s conclusion for tomorrows race…….C&D winner but didn't enjoy the rub of the green when last of 8 in handicap at Wolverhampton (8.6f, 25/1) 20 days ago. Not ruled out. *** 3 stars


Comments from trainer Charlie Fellows

Lady of Aran
Sat 16th Jan 2021
19:20, Kempton Park
DEC Odds: 8 (Betfair Exc)



Has been below par recently but there have been numerous excuses. Today's conditions are much more like it as she loves the track and 7f is perfect. Georgia rides her beautifully too so hopefully we will see the real filly today.

Currently 13/2 best price

another bet up

4.15 Durdle door 2pts win 11/2 1st :wink:

bet up

four bets up now

:wink:

40/1 shot up now

some good news on there for tomorrow

last two bets 20/1 and 8/1 winner :heart:

Great odds there Bet2win. :up:

JT

2.15 Lickpenny Larry 1pt e/w 7/1

Chases....24/4/7

Yet to race at todays course however there is reason to believe it may suit him.

Sire SAGAMIX progeny at the Wetherby is

Last two years...all races......75/10/23....+27.00
Last two years...Handicaps....58/10/20....+44.00

Chase...37/8/16....+17.00


Also

6.40 papa stour 1pt e/w 28/1 four places skybet

Last nights bet

2.40 Ocean cove 10/1

Jockey
five year course form....Doncaster...Paddy Brennan...37//11/20... +49.50
last 12 month course form...Doncaster...Paddy Brennan...15/7/9....+44.00

Trainer
five year course form...Doncaster...Fergal O' Brien...25/5/14....+11.50
Last 12 month course form...Doncaster...Fergal O' Brien...11/5/7....+23.50

Sire...Ask...All races....665/65/182...-303
Sire...Ask...Handicaps..410/48/131...-127
Sire...Ask...Chase.......162/18/55...-79

Only the one runner for the stable which is running for the first time since wind -op, trainer 2/53 first time out win after wind op however interesting they take it up to one of their most profitable tracks, combined trainer and jock have a 38% strike rate

Already gone from 12s to 9s

First class Mate.

some tips here

http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?15691-Tips-(from-paid-guessers)&p=353788#post353788

25/1 >>>>18/1 for tomorrow

Southwell 1.10
Omany Amber 2pts e/w 11/2 powers

25% met in all stats

Trainer / last 30 day form / 32 / 9 / 18 / A/E 1.38 /
Trainer / Southwell last five years / 233 / 46 / 98 / A/E 106 /
K Burke / Pierre-Louis Jamin / Southwell last five years / 11 / 4 / 7 / A/E 1.57 /

Pierre-Louis Jamin / last 14 days / 5 / 2 / 4 /
Pierre-Louis Jamin / last 30 days / 10/ 3 / 7 /
Pierre-Louis Jamin / last year course form / 14 / 5 / 8 /
Pierre-Louis Jamin / last 5 year course form / 26 / 6 / 13/

Impressive figures for all involved

Bang on well done and I'm not betting as waiting for the shops to open. But I hope some on here got on :cheer: