BEST of the BETS

Last few weeks not been great health-wise, on the positive side it probably saved me a bit of money. Hope to post more regularly from now on.

Bet #118 - 7:30 Kempton - Rhythm N Rock @ 6/1

I might be taking a big risk in backing one of John Butler's early as I think market could play a big part in this one's chances. But I feel there are enough positives to risk it at current 6/1.

Selection is one of only 3 course winners in the race. Out of the three, Accidental Agent's course win came more than 6 years ago so is discounted. Al Agaila won here earlier in the year and she is one of the dangers but all 3 of her wins have come in fillies only races. Rhythm N Rock's last win came in a novice race over this CD over 18 months ago, but I am not too concerned about the losing run as there are a few others in race that also haven't won for a long time. In that novice win, Rhythm beat a horse that is now rated 96 so the form looks quite strong. Since then he has run at Kempton 4 more times and although 3 of these ended in unplaced efforts, he did go close at a big price from 2 lbs lower mark here in July. That run came after 85-day break as most of his runs this year have been after a break. Tomorrow he runs after 26 days since his last run so has fitness on his side and may overcome 2 lbs higher mark than that placed effort.

Form of his last run at Haycock (finished 2nd of 7) in class 3 looks particularly good. The winner was an unexposed improver that had been in good form. 3rd Liamarty Dreams usually runs well at that course, and the 5th and favourite Pearl Eye had been progressive, albeit at a lower level, and also had a very good course record so it looks quite good form.

That Haycock race usually has a good record for next time winners. In last 11 runnings of that race, out of the horses that finished 2nd two didn't run again. The other 9 were all raised between 1 lb to 5 lbs by the handicapper for finishing 2nd, for those that were only raised 1 or 2 lbs 3 out of 5 won next time for LSP of +10.83, Amaze (2012), Ghinia (2015) & Delgrey Boy (2021). Interestingly, Rhythm has been left alone by handicapper on mark of 87 this year, and I feel he can compete well tomorrow if running to same level, as this looks a weaker race than last time.