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AKD

May regret backing this after the price has shortened so much, but still seems a reasonable price to me.

Bet #136 - 8:00 Dundalk - Migdam @ 9/2

Migdam has been a bit disappointing last twice over a mile here, but could be suited by step up to extended 10 furlongs. He won a Doncaster handicap (OR 89) over this distance last year when with Michael Stoute, and also ran well in top handicaps at Glorious Goodwood and Sundown from mid-90s marks over 10f.

3rd last (won) and 4th last (6th) runs for the trainer don't look bad as both races included some unexposed 3yos. There are a couple of 3yos in here, Young And Fun could need the first run on stable debut, Final Check could run well but she looks held by another horse in the race (Satono Chevalier) on their latest run.

From among the top 4 in betting, selection is the youngest and looks the most likely improver from these. Although it's a slight worry that he was beaten over 6 lengths in that race, but unplaced horses from previous runnings of that race have gone on to win this race twice (from just 6 runners) - Political Policy (7/1) in 2015 & Freescape (3/1) last year. Freescape is lower in weights this year but is 8yo now and was behind the selection last time.

Ribot

Good luck, AKD.

AKD

Thanks Ribot.

Migdam was towards the back most of the way and eventually finished 5th, they all decided to make it easy for Freescape by staying too far back. A bit annoying considering the winner was behind my selection last time, but what can you do.

No bet today, mainly because I am not feeling the confidence to pick the right one presently.

The race I had looked at today was the Tommy Whittle Chase (1:30 Haydock), 3 of these ran in race here last month - Famous Bridge (1st), Credo (2nd), Eleanor Bob (4th), winner has gone up 6 lbs, the runner up 3 lbs and 4th stayed on same mark. It makes it very tight between the three of them on revised terms. If I was to bet, I would have let the price decide for me and gone for Credo as it's the biggest price of 3 and all three of them appear to have a similar chance. In the past, 9 runners from that race have run in this race on next start with 2 of the 9 winning (10/3 & 14/1) and two others placing.

Bill Baxter ran in the Hennessy last time, but Hennessey runners don't have a good record in this with none winning and only 2 of the 6 placing despite 3 of them going off favourite for this.

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