BEST of the BETS

Bet #139 - 1:50 Leopardstown - Asterion Forlonge, win bet @ 6/1

Race does revolve around Irish Point a bit, he is a talented young horse no doubt but there is a little question mark about stamina, and he had a slightly unusual prep for this race by winning the 2m 1f Grade 2 hurdle at Down Royal and now takes a big step up in distance. It's not impossible, 2012 winner Monksland also took the same route, but I have just enough doubts to want to take him on at such a short price.

Hattons Grace, which is run over 2 and half miles at Fairyhouse 3-4 weeks earlier, is usually a good pointer to this race. But this year none of the first 4 from HG are running in this, and only Buddy One who was last of 5, runs in this but he seems unlikely winner as he still has to prove himself at this level. I find it interesting that Willie Mullins runs Asterion Forlonge in this and not Impaire et Passe who finished 2nd in Hattons Grace as he usually runs same horses in both races and has done so in every running since 2009. Impaire et Passe drops in distance to 2 miler here tomorrow, and Mullins must feel Asterion is the best option for this distance.

Selection is yet to win over this far but finished 7th in the 2022 Gold Cup, he missed a year after that and returned to hurdles for first time in over 3 years earlier in the year but seemed better than ever. He won the 2 and half mile Grade 2 at Fairyhouse's Easter festival before narrowly beaten by stablemate Klassical Dream (former winner of this race) in the Stayers Hurdle over this distance at Punchestown, so I don't feel stamina is a problem for him. Only 2 previous winners of that Fairyhouse race have gone on to run in this race, and both won - Mourad in 2010 for Mullins & Voler La Vedette (2011), admittedly both were much shorter prices.

Ballyadam also isn't completely out of this, and it would be fitting for Henry de Bromhead to win the race named in his son's memory, but he does need to improve a fair bit from his OR of 144.

All in all, I think if Irish Point fails to stay then this is a fairly open race despite the small field so not confident of even a place with my selection but he offers a bit of value at current price imo.