BEST of the BETS

Today's selection is slightly shorter price than yesterday and I am less confident about it than yesterday, with that combination perhaps I should have left it alone but here goes.

Bet #142 - 1:54 Lingfield - Base Note @ 5/2

8 runners in this Listed contest, between them have run in 24 Stakes races and are yet to win one, in spite of that I think this is a strong race as there are a few potential improvers in here that could run above their OR and a few do have placed form at this level and one of them will get their first Listed win.

Base Note has continued to improve through the year and is highest rated in here, and he showed he belongs that this level when finishing a close 3rd at Kempton (12f) on his first try in a Listed race. He is 0 from 4 at Kempton, but has a better record here at Lingfield with 2 wins from his 3 visits here, the wins came in handicaps off OR 77 (this distance) & OR 97 (12f). He has a good overall strike rate too, 30% (3 from 10, 4 places) since starting wearing the headgear. One thing I am slightly less sure about is the drop in distance, it's not that it's a problem for him as he has won over it and run well in other races, it's just that I feel there are some others like Makinmedoit who could be better suited by it. Horses that placed in Wild Flower Stakes, the race selection finished 3rd in, and then ran in this race are 2 from 7 (price of winners 9/4 & 5/1) though the last such winner was in 2013.

Two others I considered at bigger prices were, Makinmedoit, who finished 4th in Hyde Stakes over the Kempton mile last time. This extra 2 furlongs will suit her better. She has a consistent record at Lingfield, having never finished out of first 3 in five visits here that included a Listed race and three class 2 handicaps. Her win record, both career (15%) and course (20%) is bit low for this level. Horses who ran in Hyde Stakes before this race are 0 from 3. Other one that I feel could run better than his price of 40/1 is Youthful King, he does need to improve quite a bit as he is only rated 90 but he has been showing steady improvement and has a good strike rate albeit at a lower level, it would have been a speculative selection but he is only 4yo and has had a break since last run so improvement can't be ruled out. I will regret it if either of these two win or even place, but my main reason for going with Base Note was his better course record.

Tyrrhenian Sea has a chance, but I feel he is too short a price at 11/8 in race like this. He was narrowly beaten in Churchill Stakes here last month. Placed horses from that race have a record of 2 from 15 (7 others placed) in this race, it improves to 2 from 5 that went off favourite.