BEST of the BETS

Yes, thanks mate. Not having a bet now as not a lot between leading runners, but might have a very small each way on ex-Gosden horse Astrologer. Form of her last run where she finished 8th has actually worked out very well with 1st, 3rd (won next 2) & 5th all winning next time. Has a low enough draw in 5 too, so if O’Meara has her ready she could well run better than her 50/1 price.

Thank you, Dodd. Not worried about losing run yet as there is a long way to go in season, but just frustrating that I have picked the wrong one from shortlists so many times.

European Free Handicap (2:25 Newmarket) - I would have preferred 8 runners in this but taken an each way chance on KUWAIT CURRENCY (10/1) in this. Selection faced a couple of impossible tasks in two big Group 1s at end of last season, but there was nothing wrong in finishing 9 lengths behind Too Darn Hot in the Dewhurst. He was more disappointing at Doncaster next time, but he possibly got tired having raced keenly. C&D form is important here, and horses who were unplaced in the Dewhurst have a good record in this race, in last 20 years only 7 horses that ran in Dewhurst previous season have run in this, 3 of the 7 won although none of the winners in this decade. Before running in the Group 1s, selection had won the Listed Stonehenge Stakes, beating two of today’s rivals Dubai Dominion and Arctic Sound who are both shorter price than him today. Trainer has a good record in this, winning twice in last 5 seasons (including 25/1 last year) as well as a 20/1 2nd and 14/1 3rd. Shine So Bright, who has very consistent form at Group 2 level is a danger, and Victory Command, based on his 4th in Royal Lodge (Group 2) over a mile here, could also run well though Mark Johnston’s record of 0 from 11 in this is a negative.

Kuwait Currency, 0.5 pt e/w @ 10/1

Good luck.

Only 3rd, again I pick the wrong one of my final two.

Well done, great work. I completely forgot about this and actually backed 2nd & 3rd in a reverse forecast based purely on the draw, but yours did well to win from the high draw.

11 points down after just over 2 weeks, and still looking for my first winner on this thread.

3:50 Pontefract - the longest handicap of the flat season, despite being only a class 5 this is usually a good and competitive race, but that doesn’t seem to be the case this year. This year’s field looks poor to be honest, not only is it a small field but there are question marks against all the runners. Tynecastle Park at least is in good form having won last two but he has to prove that he can win away from Southwell too as all 3 career wins have come on fibresand there. Brandy James is a maiden after 8 runs and 4 year olds have a poor record in this. At a bigger price, Strictly Art has possibilities, he was only 6th over 14 furlongs at Wolverhampton last time, that probably wasn’t a bad race as the first 2 are improving horses, but big question is the stamina as this is a huge step up in distance, and also his trainer is only 1 from 40 here (9 placed though). This leaves me to decide between Rubenesque and GALILEO’S SPEAR as likely winner. Rubenesque has a few things in her favour as she had been in good form over hurdles before pulling up last twice, and she ran well on all 3 runs here last autumn from similar marks and trainer has a good record with his runners on flat, but her turning up so quickly after having pulled up just 12 days ago is a concern for me. Galileo’s Spear has gone 21 races without a win since joining Mark Prescott, the longest one of his horses has gone without getting a win in last 15 years at least, and it seems they have been trying to sell him. But before joining Prescott, he had been running in Grade 2 at Woodbine, and comes from a good staying family. Hope is that this step up in distance will see him get an overdue win, and he is actually weighted to reverse the placings with Rubenesque on their two meetings at this course last season. Only a small bet for me, as can’t be confident about a horse with such a long losing streak.

Galileo’s Spear, 1 pt win @ 18/5

Good luck.

Thank you both. I had doubts because of age, but it was another veteran that beat him. I had bigger stake on place only though, so I am happy enough with the profit.

Wow, great selection, great price, well done.

Brilliant tipping, Hippo, you were confident about Verdana Blue, well done.

Bad day, only one 10/1 placer.

Well done, Wby, great shout.

Very nice start, well done Hippo.

Thanks, Dodd.

Good run from both, especially Damut who looked like he might win trading as short as 6/4 in running. Both placed at 12/1 so profit on singles and place double.

Wby, I guess we will have to disagree on this. I am not trying to defend my selection, it ran badly, there is no argument against that. I am going through a losing run anyway, but I don’t get worried by them these days because I know losing runs are unavoidable and I feel I am better prepared for them now than I used to be.

The point I am defending is that if you can consistently beat the SP then it is a good thing in long run. For one thing, today I could have layed my selection at a lower price and guaranteed a profit, although I chose not to do that. But also because SP is a fairly true reflection of a horse’s chances, you might want to consider the following.

Looking at all the 10/1 (SP) shots in last 10 years (that’s over 60,000 horses at that price), 7.15% of them won, and it doesn’t vary much from that figure year on year. You will say that is lower than 9% that we should have got, but that is because of the over-round. Over-round is the reason we cannot break even backing every horse. If you want to get closer to true odds of a horse’s chance then you have to look at BetfairSP because that is the closest you get to a 100% book. Horses with BetfairSP of 11.0 won 9.34%, BfSP of 34.0 won 3.07% etc. You can ask me to check for any BetfairSP price for last 10 years and the win percentages will be very very close to what they should be. So from that it’s not hard to conclude, that if you can consistently beat BetfairSP, consistently being the key word here, you will make a profit in the long run.

Doesn’t matter what odds you get? Surprised I need to explain this. Of course it matters, let me put it another way, if you get 33/1 about a horse that has 9% chance of winning (which is what a 10/1 shot has) then it’s not good? Of course, 10 times out of 11 you will lose on a 10/1 shot, but it’s that one time you win you get paid out at 33/1, work it out.

No, it wasn’t, raced in last place most of the way and finished about 6th or 7th in end, I think. Still, getting 33/1 about a horse that went off at 10/1 is not a bad thing in long run.

Into 9/1 minutes before the off.

Yes, Stainless, I would have done that if it shortened a lot, but it’s actually drifted out a little bit now as there has been very little money for it since that early cash in morning, it only has about 4% share of the market on exchange now. I could still lay it for a small profit but not really worth it as it’s only a small bet I have so I am going to let it run.

Very nice place double, well done Joe.

Yes, CMB, I see TCM cut to 16/1 from 50/1 by bookies but virtually no money for it on exchange, only about £30 matched on it in total (£2 at highest price of 26.0). No more money for Shaji either since my post.