BEST of the BETS

Yes, had forgotten all about that. 2008 it was, report says winds of 50 mph that time, forecast doesn’t seem that bad this time so hopefully it will be ok.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2008/mar/12/cheltenhamfestival.cheltenhamfestival2008

I think strong winds forecast, especially for Wednesday, could be more of a problem than the going. It can’t be fun running around in those conditions but it’s same for everyone.

It started on heavy last year, I doubt it will be that bad this time. Whenever it has been soft or heavy going, first two in betting have done much better than when on quicker going.

Mostly dry tomorrow, but rain and wind forecast for Tuesday.

Thanks, Maxh. Good run for Bellow Mome, it looked to be travlellijg like the winner trading at 2.12 in running. Willie Mullins 3 horses finished 1-2-3 for a £2012 tricast, I wish I had a few pennies on that.

Very poor today.

Well done yesterday, and good luck today.

Hi Hippo. If the weights had risen, Monsieur Lecoq would be racing off his correct mark, but he is now 2 lbs wrong. So by running Call Me Lord, hasn’t Henderson actually handed a 2 lbs advantage to Dream Du Grand Val over the favourite? Or am I missing something?

For today’s stat I am looking at Preparation, by this I mean which races the horses ran in right before running at Cheltenham, and ten year stats shows this method to be most profitable. Leopardstown’s big meeting at end of January is by far the most profitable when it comes to finding winners at Cheltenham festival. It’s not really surprising as that Leopardstown meeting is very competitive with all Irish trainers running their top horses there in preparation for Cheltenham, and falling about 6 weeks before Cheltenham it’s at just the right time. Christmas meeting and other smaller meetings there have also proved profitable.

So for this we are looking for horses that ran in a Graded race (Grade 1, 2, 3, handicaps as well as non handicaps) at Leopardstown last time, and either won or were beaten no more than 5 lengths. Following just these two conditions has given 40 winners (Willie Mullins responsible for 17 of them) from 180 bets at a strike rate of 22% for LSP of, wait for it... +149.37 at SP (+195 at Betfair SP), that’s doubling your money. It has proved to be most consistent of all methods I have listed as it has shown a profit in 9 out of 10 years and only a small loss in the other year. Biggest priced winner using this method has been 33/1.

That’s all for now, I think we have enough there to work with. With my four methods and one requested by Maxh, we can expect a total of about 100 qualifiers over the 4 days, that’s an average of about 3 to 4 selections per race, which is more than enough. I don’t intend to back every selection, but all these methods will guide me in making my selections. Time permitting, I will list the qualifiers on this thread the night before.

Good luck all, here’s to a good festival, hoping all the horses and jockeys stay safe, and we make a bit of profit too.

Grrrr so unlucky on the double, Hatcher won as expected, Solid Strike 2nd at 14/1 having touched 1.35 in running.

Thanks, Rodeo. Maxh, I have looked at placed form at the course angle and you are correct, stats show it to be a big positive if the horse is also prominent in betting. Strangely (or maybe not), horses that have been placed only once at the course don’t do very well, you need horses that have placed at the course at least twice before. I went back to look at why horses that have placed only once before at the course don’t do so well, and by separating them it shows that those who were placed only previous run at course also show a small profit but it’s those that have run at the course more than once before but only placed once that should be avoided as they have performed poorly.

So to summarise, look for horses that have won or placed at least twice before at the course (it doesn’t have to be at main festival meeting, and can be over different distances and in different disciplines), and they must be priced 5/1 or shorter. Over last 10 years these have produced 44 winners from 147 bets (30% strike rate) for +18.33 LSP, and been profitable in 6 out of 10 years. This method does significantly better in chase races than in hurdles.

Not sure what they are doing with Tavener, he is having his 3rd run in 4 days (2:40 Lingfield), it’s running reasonably but losing run is getting longer and longer, very frustrating to follow a horse like this s9 I am not backing it but posting it in case others want to keep following it.

I hope someone finds these useful, todays piece doesn’t only relate to Cheltenham, it can help improve your daily selections too.

Today’s stat relates to form, form is very important, people interpret form in different ways, the way I look at form is to not just look at how the horse has been running but I consider it more important to look at how the horses it has been running against have done since then. For example you might have a horse that won last time but then all the horses from that race have run poorly since then, in that case the form is probably not very good.

Looking at last 10 years at festival, we are looking for horses that won or placed on their latest run, then we look at that last race and if at least two thirds (67%) of the horses to have run since that race were at least placed in their next race, then we have a selection. This method has produced 43 winners from 352 bets, at 12% strike rate for LSP of +100.26 over last 10 years. This method has proved profitable in 6 out last 10 years.

Please note the low strike rate, that’s what makes this a riskier method than others so we should be aware that this can result in a long losing streak. Strike rate can be improved by setting a price limit but then we lose the big priced winners (it has produced winners at up to 33/1).

Well done.

Outstanding tipping, great strike rate at good prices. I am actually kicking myself because I selected some of your horses to back but then got busy with something. I hope your purple patch continues because I plan to follow you tomorrow. Very well done.

Well done, Bodger.

Pulled very hard and beaten a nose, very unlucky.

Poor today. The two gambles in the race finished 1st & 2nd, not surprised by the winner actually, it had every chance on form, just the draw didn’t look good.

Nice double.

Possible bet for beaten favourite system - Kraka in 8:00 Kempton. Sorry I didn’t post it earlier, but didn’t think it would be favourite, I don’t know if it is being backed or has it become favourite due to huge drift on Dark Magic? Either way, as usual I will only back it if it’s still favourite close to the off.