BEST of the BETS

Lovely price, well done.

Tried to make all, but got caught close home, I was right about Sam riding one winner at least as he won on Arthur’s Gift earlier on the card.

I didn’t see the race, but yes it’s horrible when something like this happens. I understand how you feel, and I would be asking myself same questions do we really care and can we do anything about it? And to be honest, I would be struggling to find answers.

I think Aypee has summed it up really well, and I will second everything he said.

Thanks guys. There is a possible bet tomorrow under the beaten favourite system. Gowanbuster (8:00 Newcastle) currently meets all 4 conditions for the system. It was beaten favourite last time, is turning out quickly after running here on Friday, and is dropping from class 5 to class 6, and it is currently the favourite. It is priced 5/2 at the moment against 10/3 2nd favourite. I will wait till close to the off and will only bet if it looks certain that it will go off favourite.

Well done, Dodd.

Very nice, well done Bodger.

Well done, Rockavon.

Probably not. Smooth Stepper never really in it, but plodded on to finish 5th. Lizzie Langton placed 3rd @ 12/1, so only a small loss on the day.

Winner, 3rd & 5th from your top 3, well done Brian.

Thanks, Dazzler, and Dodd.

Good luck both.

Hello, Calvert. Sorry I didn’t see this earlier, our race pricing thread got interrupted due to break in racing, but I also felt my results were not very good considering the time it was taking, but I might pick it up again sometime.

So I haven’t done the pricing for this race, but next best thing I can do is post how all the runners are ranked on my ratings.

1. Yala Enki
2. Vieux Lion Rouge
3. Ramses De Teillee
4. Caroles Destrier
5. Ah Littleluck
6. Red Infantry
7. The Two Amigos
7. Chef Doeuvre
9. Royal Vacation
10. Impulsive Star
11. Pobbles Road
12. Robinsfirth
13. Ballyarthur
14. Bishops Road
15. Ballyoptic
16. Wakanda

It’s a tight handicap as you say, my idea of the winner would be Red Infantry or Ah Littleluck, and I have had small bets on both these.

Thanks guys. A big rule 4 due to late withdrawal of the favourite, but still a good profit.

Thanks, Calvert.

Also a list of top 10 performing trainers when it comes to last time beaten favourites. But be careful with this as sample size is not very big, average of less than 200 runners per trainer.

1. Ben Pauling
2. Chris Wall
3. Alistair Whillans
4. David Lanigan
5. John Balding
6. Willie McCreery
7. John Mackie
8. Seamus Mullins
9. Andrew Oliver
10. Dean Ivory

I have looked at the beaten favourite angle and they do tend to do a little bit better than average. There doesn’t seem to be much difference between UK and Ireland when it comes to performance of beaten favourites, very marginally better in Ireland but not enough for it to be a factor. Biggest clear factor, not surprisingly, seems to be class of race, those dropping in class do few points better than average, horses running in same class perform average, and those moving up in class perform worse than average. Note: I know they don’t use class system in Ireland, but it can be worked out by looking at difference between prize money. Another big factor, although sample size for this isn’t huge, is if the horse is running very quickly after last run. Those beaten favourites who run within 7 days of their last run show much better return than those with a bigger break. And when you combine these two factors of beaten favourites dropping in class and also running within 7 days, you have a system that has shown a profit over last 10 years, blindly backing these qualifiers has shown a profit of 4% at SP and 9% at Betfair SP, but you only get on average about 60 of these qualifiers in a year. You can further enhance this system by only betting horses who are favourite again, and I am actually going to use this as a system. Horses who meet all 4 of these conditions of beaten fav last time, dropping in class, running within 7 days, and favourite again, have returned a 30% profit at SP over last ten years. Only trouble is you only get about 30 of these bets in a year, another drawback is you have to wait till before the off to see if the horse will go off favourite. Record over last 10 years is 157 wins from 329 bets for a strike rate of 48% and +99 LSP, two qualifiers so far this year both won at 3/1 (Foreign Legion, who has incidentally run up a 4-timer) and 5/2 (Space Bandit).

Thanks, Maxh, I will get back to you about beaten favourites.

I should clarify my above post by saying that backing every c&d winner at these courses will not guarantee a profit. Course & distance form is just one factor, of course many other things have to be considered. Stats show that on average c&d winners have about 4-5% (no more than that) edge over horses who haven’t won over c&d in terms of profit/loss. But at certain courses that edge is a lot bigger than average, for expample at Hexham which has always been considered a specialist’s course that edge is nearly 20%, so that was the idea behind above list.

Good work again, well done Dodd.

Sheena West runs Ding Ding at Plumpton. The owners are sponsoring the race so maybe we can hop for a good run :smile: — Stevie Wonder

Finished 2nd (beaten 10 lengths) in this race last year from a 3 lbs higher mark. Comes here in similar form to last year and has also had a similar preparation i.e, won same Plumpton race in November as last season and 5th in same Fontwell race (December) as last season. Good luck.

Wow, great start, well done and good luck with others.

Was disputing the lead till about 3rd last, but stopped very quickly as if something amiss and virtually pulled up.