BEST of the BETS

Friday 20th September
Anna Swan 2:25 Newbury. She made a hugely impressive debut even accounting for getting weight from a couple of previous winners. Sir MS is not known for first time outers so I expect she will show more today. She’ll probably need to because the €800,000 Cathedral looks pretty smart as well.

Lake Forest 4:05 Newbury. Finished best of all into second behind Insherin in the Group1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot then did the same in the Group3 Hackwood at Newbury behind Elite Status. His only two runs thus far this season. A Listed race this time and the extra furlong should suit him fine. The good to soft ground is a bit of a worry and it’s to be hoped it’s dried out a bit more and the threatened rain doesn’t appear until after the race. He was withdrawn at Doncaster recently when the description was good! I’ll also be interested to see how Nostrum goes. Lost his manhood after finishing last to Charyn at Sandown, then ran a pretty nice second to Noble Dynasty in the Group3 Criterion at Newmarket in July. Wind done since. He, too, has only the two runs this season.

Interested in a runner in the 3.45 at Yarm, but this one poses conflicting trends history.

TIGER CRUSCADE (14/1) is the runner I'm keen on as the trainer/jockey combination in handicaps during July - Nov is close to 25%.
When riding a runner running a class higher he's 10/20 with 13 placed.

D Simcock has a 9/39 record at Yarmouth in CL2/3 races with 17 placed.
Runners carrying bottom weight to 4lbs more he's 5/10.

Issue I have is that in the 19 X 6F CL 3 handicaps every winner has been aged 3 - 5 YO.

Because of TIGER CRUSCADE'S back class I'm playing and will save on the place markets.

Lerwick (5.15 Pontefract)



Why is he fancied here?

Finished weakly over today's course and distance on his reappearance in April, but perhaps there was more to it than just lack of fitness and/or the soft ground that day as he was off for another four months afterwards. In any case, he returned to his best at Beverley last month, seeing his race out strongly in a well-run contest that produced a good time. The climb to the line suited him there, and he's shown before that the stiff finish here plays to his strengths as well. He was runner-up on his second start at two to a filly now rated 92, and last summer he made all to win a handicap with a degree of ease. Fresh for the time of year and representing an in-form yard, he can shrug off a 4lb rise for his Beverley win.
Steffan Edwards

Well done Brian

Ayr 3.42

Profiled this race.
The following runners all meet a profile that historically has found the past 10 winners from 27 runners for a 76 BFSP profit.

OVIEDO (9/2) HAVE A SECRET (9/2) BUST A MOVE (22/1)

Trainers % and ROI in similar CL 2 races

Bethell 13% +15% ROI
Fahey 7% (49%) ROI
MW East 7% (14%) ROI

Trainers records with previous runners in this race Fahey 1/22 (4 placed) K Ryan 1/4 (2 placed) O Meara 0/7 (4 placed) T East 1/14 (6 placed) MW East 1/1

Fahey appear to throw a lot of runners at this race, but with limited success. Ryans two runners are the wrong age historically. O Meara's placed runners were ridden by Tudhope. D Allan's race record reads 1/8 with 4 placed, but is the wrong age. MW Easterby's runner BUST A MOVE is very interesting and will be my focus here with the remaining selections backed for reduced stakes.

Also a HAIL MARY €2 e/w lucky 15

1.55 YOUR DARLING 10/1 skybet 3 places
2.15 THE LATE LEGEND 9/1 skybet 4 places
3.05 TORNADO FLYER 1pt 18/1 skybet 4 places
3.40 ON TO VICTORY 1pt 12/1 skybet 4 places.

Stake €60.00 Returns €75,665.06 :D :D :D

You won €752.96 (inc. stake)

and me :cool:

3rd---11/1 a little unlucky not too win but profit made.

this from that site too

As usual please only bet what you can afford.

Lets start off with Doncaster 3.45pm Mustarrid 1pt e/w 25/1 skybet 6 places

Although this 7f trip maybe a little short for Mustarrid its an apprentice race and they may go off to fast, Mustarrid is quite capable of cutting thru this field, at 25/1 he is just too big to ignore.

Mustarrid Official rating 76

Mustarrid’s lifetime form reads 31/1252880/0/0440219/5750014-7698670

Mustarrid’s lifetime turf form reads

14/16….7/7….6/9….8/9….9/10….6/6….7/13….1/10….13/20
14/15….5/12…7.13…5/8….1/7…..2/11…11/13…4/7…..13/16
8/9……8/12…2/5….5/11…2/7

Its only two wins were at Nottingham on soft going in class 3 handicaps however like Doncaster they head for home quite early at Nottingham and although up a class today at 25s I am willing to take a chance.

Oh forgot to say, from the 23 times Mustarrid ran on turf he only raced two times at Doncaster 2nd both times when rated 90 and 94
runs off 76 today.

Also Mustarrid’s sire ELZAAM has a 27.50% place strike rate in sprints at Doncaster.

Distance Range
FLAT: Sprint (less than 7.5 furlongs) / Middle Distance (7.5 – 11.5 furlongs) / Staying (greater than 11.5 furlongs)

Good luck

https://dailyhorseracing.boards.net/

monthly naps competition daily nap and next best bet.
€50 cash price

SULLY D’OC AA(FR) Talented horse; had a palate fire just to give him every chance, feel like there's a very good handicap in him. Might want to run on good to soft ground, and definitely has a playable mark. Could drop back to two miles.


:up:

+199pts since Jan 1st 2021 :cool: :cool: :cool:

150pts plus since Jan1st 2021 :cool:

some winners on that thread today

http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?15691-Tips-(from-paid-guessers)&p=353788#post353788

Count me in Mugz

Jack

Foxes Tales 2/1 is a lovely horse who has never really shown a great deal at home, but pleasantly surprised us with his showing on his debut at Kempton.

He looks well in himself and it will be interesting to see if he handles faster ground in the 15:55. His half-brother, Fox Chairman, won this race a few years back, albeit in different conditions.

Trainer Andrew Balding

4.50
powersbomb 2pts e/w 16/1 skybet 6 places

Thanks P

some drift 10/1

Southwell 1.10
Omany Amber 2pts e/w 11/2 powers

25% met in all stats

Trainer / last 30 day form / 32 / 9 / 18 / A/E 1.38 /
Trainer / Southwell last five years / 233 / 46 / 98 / A/E 106 /
K Burke / Pierre-Louis Jamin / Southwell last five years / 11 / 4 / 7 / A/E 1.57 /

Pierre-Louis Jamin / last 14 days / 5 / 2 / 4 /
Pierre-Louis Jamin / last 30 days / 10/ 3 / 7 /
Pierre-Louis Jamin / last year course form / 14 / 5 / 8 /
Pierre-Louis Jamin / last 5 year course form / 26 / 6 / 13/

Impressive figures for all involved

Kim Bailey

First Flow
Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
His greatest asset on the track has always been his jumping. We've struggled to get him to jump properly at home – we don't school over fences because I was fed up of repairing them! – but at Ascot he jumped so well. The important thing for him is getting into a rhythm and I hope he does the same at Cheltenham. I hope he will handle the course – if you go back to his novice days he lugged right at every hurdle whereas at Ascot he went slightly left, so perhaps age has made it a different matter. There are so many phenomenal horses in there, but I know First Flow will try his guts out, he's a freak.
Happygolucky
Ultima Handicap Chase
I'm very happy with him and, although he's been left in the novice races, the plan is to go for the Ultima. He's rated 147 and on form he can't win the others, but we left him in because anything can happen before Cheltenham.

Imperial Aura

Ryanair Chase
He looks very well and did his first pre-Cheltenham work on Monday last week, which set him off. He had a break after his Kempton demise but all has been good since. David [Bass] said his eye was taken off the fence by something on the inside of it and his head definitely moved towards something. Under normal circumstances, he's a sound jumper and good traveller. He won at the meeting last year and I don't see why him racing on the New course will make a huge amount of difference. Wherever you run him, he's very adaptable.
Vinndication
Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle, WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup
He worked with Imperial Aura last Monday and I was really happy with him. That was his first piece of work as he was lame after Newbury and had a break. My problem is that I'm not 100 per cent sure which race he wants to go for, so we're sitting on the fence at the moment.
Gavin Cromwell

Flooring Porter
Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle
We’re really happy with him and he runs well fresh. It’s a small bit of a concern not having a true running rail. He’s not ungenuine or anything but that’s a concern. I think we’ll be keeping tactics the same with him and we’re looking forward to running him there.
Darver Star
Sporting Life Arkle, Marsh Novices' Chase
We’re not sure if we go for Cheltenham or wait for the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse. We could step him up in trip in the Marsh, but is Envoi Allen beatable? We’re not ruling out the Arkle. If it was nice ground, he could run in the Arkle. The ground would be the key factor. He shows a lot more class and speed on nice ground. Slow ground makes him look slow, but he’s clearly not because he ran well in the Champion Hurdle last year.
Letsbeclearaboutit
Weatherbys Champion Bumper
He has been beaten by Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard and whether he can turn the form around with them, I don’t know. His grand dam [Refinement] was second in it and he has plenty of experience. He’s in good nick and I wouldn’t rule it out.
Gabynako
Coral Cup, Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle,
He’s likely to go for the Martin Pipe. He gained a bit of handicap experience over the Christmas and we’re happy with him.
Rebecca Curtis

Lisnagar Oscar
Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle
We were trying to get a run into him before the Stayers' Hurdle, but there wasn't much for him after the Cleeve Hurdle was off. We found a race at Exeter, but the ground went against us so he went to Haydock on Saturday and finished second. I thought he might just win but he did himself justice. We'd had his wind done, which should help as I think that was the problem on his previous two runs. My faith hasn't been dented and I think he's as good as when he won last year.
Peter Fahey

Royal Kahala
Parnell Properties Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle
I was a little disappointed with her at Fairyhouse and there's no point saying I wasn't because we went there expecting to win. Dropping back to two miles won't be as much of a problem for her this year because it's on the New course and it could be a help to her more than anything. This is more of a staying track. She's in great form so fingers crossed. I think she can run a huge race.
Harry Fry

If The Cap Fits
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle
We tried him up in trip last time at Taunton but he bumped into a very consistent, tough opponent in Yala Enki. However, that was only our fourth start over fences. He's running well without winning – at Christmas he did look laboured but the final result looks better than the race actually went. The Brown Advisory Novices' Chase is his only engagement over fences as we scratched him from both the Marsh and the National Hunt Chase.

Metier

Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle
We've kept our powder dry and skipped the rearranged Betfair Hurdle to head straight for the Supreme. It was an easy decision to make as he would have had quite a tough task being a Grade 1 winner and it's just over three weeks to Cheltenham. We're delighted with the progress he's made and he'll go there all guns blazing. What excites us is that he has a very high cruising speed and his jumping is a strong asset, particularly when it matters most. He ticks all the boxes and, while he has a bit to find with Appreciate It, the favourites don't win every race and we have plenty of confidence.
Jessica Harrington

Ashdale Bob
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
It wasn't his true running last time at Leopardstown. I don't know whether he'll go to Cheltenham or not, but we'll see how things are closer to the time.
Emma Lavelle

Paisley Park
Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle
Touch wood, he's good to go. We went to Newbury to have a proper racecourse gallop as it was a shame he didn't get to run in the Cleeve Hurdle, and all went extremely well. The weather hasn't made it easy, but we're really looking forward to getting back to Cheltenham. He's been great this year all round, so straightforward, and hopefully his troubles are behind him. There were concerns about where we would be this season, but he gave us so much confidence at Newbury and it was heartwarming to see his old desire and battle to win at Ascot. We'll have him spot on and we have nervous excitement, we're counting down the days.
Nicky Martin

Bear Ghylls
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
He's in seriously good form, but we're on to Plan H with him. There's nothing for him so he's going straight to Cheltenham. He does need mileage on the clock and I really wanted him to go to Cheltenham to have a run around there before the festival because it is different from elsewhere, but I know he's good. We haven't been able to prove it yet and, being such a small yard, we haven't got anything like Nicky Henderson has to compare him against. He's probably the best chance we've ever had; he's very exciting.
Gary Moore

Goshen
Unibet Champion Hurdle
He trotted up sound the day after Wincanton and he came out of the race with no cuts, bruises or any problems. It was fantastic to see what he did, he couldn't do any more than win in the manner he did and it was a massive relief. I know it wasn't the Champion Hurdle but it meant a lot to see the horse back and it's lovely to have something like Cheltenham to look forward to with him. There will still be some worry on the way to get him there healthy and sound, but fingers crossed he'll show his true colours again against two great mares [Epatante and Honeysuckle].
Jonjo O'Neill

Annie Mc
Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase
She came out of her Warwick win great and it's all systems go. Soft ground does help her, but everything has fallen right recently and she's been doing the job nicely. She's a grand jumper and is more than entitled to be there. As we saw with Benie Des Dieux, it's a long way to go until Cheltenham, but if she gets there safe and sound she's got a great chance.

Sky Pirate

Sporting Life Arkle, Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
He knows he had a race last time and was more than entitled to be a bit tired. The winner is a very good horse so I was delighted to finish second. We'll leave him in the races until much closer to the time, but the Arkle is very hot looking – Energumene and Shishkin look like superstars and I think Allmankind is an underrated horse.
Joseph O'Brien

Keskonrisk
Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle, Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
If he's to go to Cheltenham, it'll be a case of heading straight there. Given he hasn't had a third run over hurdles, it'll be in a Graded race if he does run at the festival. We'll keep our options open.
David Pipe

Adagio
JCB Triumph Hurdle
He's in really good form and all roads lead to the Triumph Hurdle. I wasn't sure he was up to that quality but he performed with that class at Chepstow and keeps improving. The Irish have a strong hold on the race but he doesn't mind any ground, travels and jumps well. He has to be one of the best British challengers.
Harry Whittington

Rouge Vif
Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
He's in exceptional form and had a little break since Kempton, but we'll need the ground to dry out. The plan is for him to run as long as conditions are suitable, but if not we're more than happy to wait for Aintree or Sandown at the end of the season.
Saint Calvados
Ryanair Chase, WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup
He came out of his Sandown unseat absolutely fine thankfully. There's no doubt he loves Cheltenham, he's much better left-handed and is a very good horse when fresh, so we'll go straight there. He's been left in both races and we'll keep both in mind, but he's much shorter for the Ryanair and was only beaten a neck last year, so we'd assume that's his greater chance. One may become a weaker race, but we'll make sure he's ready wherever he goes.
Evan Williams

Coole Cody
Paddy Power Plate
He's happy and I wanted to run him last week but the ground was a bit too deep. I'm very keen to run him this weekend as a pipe-opener and then he'll go for the handicap. He's a grand horse who's good fresh and hopefully he can have a busy spring campaign.
Secret Reprieve
National Hunt Chase, Brown Advisory Novices' Chase
I'd be in no rush to go to Cheltenham as I'd like to go for the Grand National and personally want to go straight there. We'll decide what we want to do in a couple of weeks with the owners.

Silver Streak

Unibet Champion Hurdle
Everything with him has gone smoothly so far. The beauty of my job is that I always hoped he'd win a Grade 1 and it was very satisfying to do so. There's no doubt Epatante ran below par at Kempton and I expect her to be far better at Cheltenham – she will be very difficult to beat again. He needs a lot of improvement to keep tabs on the principals, it's almost an impossible task as they set such a high standard. If he could finish in the first six we'd be delighted, but he owes us nothing. Horses like him are very difficult to find.
Venetia Williams

Royale Pagaille
National Hunt Chase, Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup
He came out of Haydock very well and retains three entries. I need to talk to connections and a target will be decided in the near future.
Mick Winters

Chatham Street Lad
Marsh Novices' Chase and other entries
He's fit and well and the plan is the Marsh. He was a small bit stiff and sore after the Dan Moore, but we've been taking him to the beach and walking him in the water. It's working wonders for him and he's a lot stronger in himself.

some tips here

http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?15691-Tips-(from-paid-guessers)&p=353788#post353788

25/1 >>>>18/1 for tomorrow