BEST of the BETS

one in from the guesser on that other site :wink:

todays up

one up now

Ballydine 12s everywhere, I suppose lots following cause they are free but hey, very early days.

THREE BETS UP THERE TODAY WITH WRITE UP

1.45 APOLLINARIS 1pt e/w 9/1
3.00 BALLYDINE 1pt e/w 28/1
4.10 INCLYNE 1pt e/w 10/1

For anyone who really likes a return Skybet paying 14.46/1 for the three to be placed, 4 places first race, 6 places second race and three places last race.

Good luck for today we will need it.

bet up for tomorrow, getting lashed out of it already 33/1 laddies

yes mine too. He says they will be up there every day for a month so obviously looking for future customers but hey while its free....happy days

some tips here

http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?15691-Tips-(from-paid-guessers)&p=353788#post353788

If it does go ahead


Timeform bring you their comprehensive runner-by-runner guide to the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on Sunday and pick out their 1-2-3...
Welsh Grand National
14:50 Chepstow, Sunday
Live on ITV
1. Yala Enki (Paul Nicholls/Bryony Frost)
Proved at least as good as ever when chasing home Ramses de Teillee in a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham on his reappearance, keeping on well on the run-in but just failing. Fell at the first in the Becher Chase at Aintree last time, but he is usually a sound jumper and should give another good account from 4 lb higher than when third in this race 12 months ago.
2. Truckers Lodge (Paul Nicholls/Lorcan Williams (3))
Shaped encouragingly when second in this race 12 months ago and confirmed himself a strong stayer when winning the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter on his only subsequent start last season, drawing clear on the run-in to win by 18 lengths. 14 lb higher in the weights now, though, and this demands a big career best after unseating his rider on his reappearance at Kelso.
3. Ramses de Teillee (David Pipe/Tom Scudamore)
Likeable type who finished second in this race in 2018. Campaigned mostly over hurdles last season but ran right up to his best back over fences when winning a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham (by a short head from Yala Enki) on his reappearance, showing a good attitude to hold on. Let down by his jumping when seventh in the Becher Chase at Aintree last time but should bounce back.
4. Lord du Mesnil (Richard Hobson/Paul O'Brien (3))
Thrived on a busy campaign last season, winning three times and producing even better efforts in defeat when second in the Grand National Trial at Haydock and National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. Yet to recapture that form in two starts this season, however, and looks too high in the weights.
5. The Hollow Ginge (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Sam Twiston-Davies)
Matched the pick of his useful novice form when 14 lengths fourth to Cloth Cap in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury last time, faring best of those held up. Shapes as if likely to stay long-distances (let down his jumping on his only previous attempt) but looks too high in the weights.
6. Vieux Lion Rouge (David Pipe/Connor O'Farrell)
Took advantage of his falling mark to repeat his 2016 success in the Becher Chase at Aintree (by 24 lengths) last time, typically jumping well and forging clear from two out. Remains to be seen whether he can back that effort up away from Aintree, but he has won at Chepstow before and shouldn't be underestimated under a 4 lb penalty.
7. Springfield Fox (Tom George/James Bowen)
Won novice handicaps at Chepstow and Exeter before unseating his rider in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last season. Shaped encouragingly after nine months off when second in a novice hurdle at this course last time, leaving the impression the run would bring him on. Still completely unexposed in staying chases and remains open to more improvement.
8. The Two Amigos (Nicky Martin/Matt Griffiths)
Bold-jumping front runner who stepped up on his reappearance when second in the Welsh National Trial at this course last time, just keeping on at the one pace in the straight. On a losing run stretching back to January 2019 but doesn't know how to run a bad race. Should give another good account from the same mark as when fifth in this race 12 months ago.
9. Big River (Lucinda Russell/Derek Fox)
Strong stayer who shaped as if needing the run when well-held third behind Ramses de Teillee on his reappearance at Cheltenham, quickly losing touch from three out. Still on a good mark judged on the pick of his efforts, but it remains to been seen whether his jumping will stand up to this test.
10. Dominateur (Oliver Sherwood/Brendan Powell)
Both wins last season came over 3m at this track, looking all about stamina. Made mistakes when well-held third behind Pym in a listed event at Sandown on his reappearance, lacking the necessary speed in a tactical race. Should find this test more suitable, especially given his good course record, and may yet have more to offer on just his second try at marathon trips.
11. Captain Drake (Harry Fry/Bryan Carver (3)
Ended last season with a good second in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter and picked up where he left off after seven months off with a career best to win back over hurdles at the same venue in October. Below that form in two subsequent starts over fences, however, and needs this extreme test to spark a revival.


12. Prime Venture (Evan Williams/Tom O'Brien)
Proved better than ever after eight months off to belatedly get off the mark at Sedgefield last time, jumping superbly and steadily drawing clear in the straight to win readily by 16 lengths. This looks the obvious next step and he commands respect from only 4 lb higher than when fourth in this race 12 months ago.
13. Joe Farrell (Rebecca Curtis/Ben Jones (3))
Veteran chaser who won the 2018 Scottish Grand National but has struggled for form recently. Well held on all three starts this season, including when sixth in the Becher Chase at Aintree last time, and is very hard to fancy as a result.
14. Christmas In April (Colin Tizzard/Robbie Power)
Thorough stayer who did well in long-distance chases last season, winning three times, including the Devon National at Exeter. Ran creditably after eight months off in the Southern National at Fontwell last time, rallying well on the run-in to snatch second. 1 lb lower here and should go well for a yard with a good recent record in this race.
15. Bobo Mac (Tom Symonds/Sean Bowen)
Shaped encouragingly after nine months off/wind surgery when well-held third in the Welsh National Trial at this course last time, faring best of those held up. May have more to offer this season for a yard in red-hot form and certainly doesn't look handicapped out of things.
16. Secret Reprieve (Evan Williams/Adam Wedge)
Fell on his reappearance at Haydock before putting that behind him with a career best to win the Welsh National Trial at this course last time, leading before two out and then gradually drawing clear to land the spoils easily by 12 lengths. Remains open to more improvement and is likely to stay beyond 3m, so his credentials are very hard to knock under a 4 lb penalty.
17. Didero Vallis (Venetia Williams/Carlie Deutsch)
Missed the second half of last season after a good second in the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby and returned with a below-par effort at Ascot in November. Fared little better in the Grand Sefton Chase at Aintree last time and has plenty to prove if stepping up markedly in trip here (also entered in the latest edition of the Rowland Meyrick).
18. Alminar (Nigel Hawke/Tom Buckley (5))
Likeable chaser who scored over 3m here (heavy) in January. Good reappearance third in a competitive event at Cheltenham but has failed to complete at Haydock since.


Recommended bets

Timeform's analyst verdict
SECRET REPRIEVE readily saw off reopposing pair The Two Amigos and Bobo Mac over 3m here at the start of the month and looks well-in under just a 4 lb penalty, particularly as his lightly-raced profile provides the hope for better still. Springfield Fox is another unexposed chaser who likely has more to offer and he's a big threat. Christmas In April and Truckers Lodge are others to consider.
1. Secret Reprieve
2. Springfield Fox
3. Christmas In April

Significant rain overnight at Leopardstown has certainly alleviated any prospect of watering for the moment.

The south County Dublin venue was hit with 18mm of rain overnight (23mm in total since the last update on Monday morning) and the chase course is now yielding with the hurdle course described as yielding to soft.

The inner hurdle course will be used on days three and four of the Festival meeting, and the going is currently described as soft on this part of the track.

There is the potential for a further 5-10mm of rain prior to racing on Saturday with an unsettled forecast thereafter.

There was a further 20mm of rain at Limerick where the going remains heavy. The forecast is mainly dry in the region over the next few days but unsettled from Saturday.

Source: irishracing.com


I think for all punters just be careful getting on over the next 48 hrs. I checked the going on the Irish Racing website and it currently says yielding for Leopardstown?

It has been pissing all night and day here and whilst it is to clear tomorrow and Friday it is hardly drying weather expected. It is forecast to shower on Saturday so I reckon it can't go off any better than soft. Albeit Leopardstown does drain well, I would not be expecting any quick winter ground either. I would say it will be as dead as phuck also, as when water gets into it and then cold evenings on top... generally bogs it up and makes it sticky - basically a lot deader than yielding.

Boxing Day TV Trends: Sat 26th Dec 2020
21/12/2020/by Andy Newton
A huge day on Boxing Day, but the festive highlight, as racing resumes after a three-day break, is the King George VI Meeting at Kempton Park.

The King George VI Chase is the feature race of the day as punters will look to get their Christmas expenses paid for – a race in recent years we’ve seen horse racing greats like Kauto Star, Long Run, Best Mate, Kicking King, One Man and, more recently, Thistlecrack, Might Bite, landing the prize – while the Paul Nicholls-trained Clan Des Obeaux has landed the last two King George VI Chases.

Plus, at Wetherby the ITV cameras are also heading there to take in the Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick Chase.

We take a look at each race on the Kempton card and highlight the main trends, plus the Rowland Meyrick Chase – hopefully this will help you narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few winners.



Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
12:40 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Novices' Hurdle Race 2m RTV

13/13 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
12/13 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/13 – Favourites placed in the top 3
10/13 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Winning distance 3 lengths or more
9/13 – Had won a NH Flat race before
7/13 – Won just once over hurdles before
7/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/13 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
Fred (9/2) won the race 12 months ago



1.15 – Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side On Football Novices’ Limited Hancicap Chase (Gbb Race) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-140) 2m 4 1/2f ITV

16/16 – Aged 7 or younger
15/16 – Had won between 0-1 times over fences in the UK
13/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/16 – Placed favourites (1 joint)
8/16 – Officially rated between 119 and 125
8/16 – Carried 11-5 or more
7/16 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/16 – Won by a French bred horse
5/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/16 – Raced at Kempton last time out
Commanche Red (4/1) won the race 12 months ago

1.50 – Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices´ Chase (In memory of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

17/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Placed in the top two last time out
13/17 – Won last time out
13/17 – French (7) or Irish (6) bred
12/17 – Had won at least 2 times over fences in the UK
11/17 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
11/17 – Aged 6 or younger
11/17 – Went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (no winners)
10/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Aged 6 years-old
9/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Had won (chase) over at least 3m before
8/17 – Raced at Newbury last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by David Pipe
2/17 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
1/17 – French trained
1/17 – Went onto run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (One winner - Coneygree 2015)
Slate House (3/1) won the race 12 months ago



2.25 – Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

16/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/18 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
15/18 – Placed favourites
14/18 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Went onto run in the Champion Hurdle (Faughan (2015), Buveur D’Air (2018), Epatante (2019) winners)
11/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Winning favourites
10/18 – Went onto finish in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle that season
9/18 – Had run over hurdles at Kempton before
8/18 – Irish trained
8/18 – Ran in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Newcastle) last time out
7/18 – French bred
7/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/18 – Trained by Noel Meade
2/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins
Epatante (2/1) won the race 12 months ago



3.00 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

16/18 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
16/18 – Had won a Grade One chase before
16/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/18 – French (12) or Irish bred (4)
15/18 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 – Had won over 3m or further (fences) before
14/18 – Officially rated 169 or higher
14/18 – Aged 8 or younger
11/18 – Winning favourites
11/18 – Won last time out
11/18 – Had won a race over fences at Kempton before
10/18 – Ran in the Betfair Chase (Haydock) last time out
10/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
9/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (11 times in all)
8/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard (only 3 in the last 34 runnings)
Colin Tizzard and Nicky Henderson have trained 5 of the last 10 winners (2 Tizzard, 3 Henderson)
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 4/1



3.35 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (3yo+ 0-140) 2m5f RTV


13/13 – Won no more than 3 times (UK Hurdles)
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13 – Won between 0-2 times hurdles (UK)
10/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
10/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/13 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/13 – Ran 5 or less weeks ago
8/13 – Officially rated 120-129
8/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – French bred
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Honest Vic (10/1) won the race 12 months ago



Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m45y ITV

11/12 – Aged 8 or younger
11/12 – Had won 3 or less times over fences (UK)
10/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
10/12 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
10/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had raced at Wetherby before
8/12 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
8/12 – Had won over 3m (chase) before
7/12 – Unplaced in their last race
7/12 – Irish bred
4/12 – Raced at either Haydock (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
3/12– Winning favourites
Top Ville Ben won the race in 2019
Lake View Lad won the race in 2018

Paddy Brennan: “A mark of 136 gives us chances in a very competitive handicap”

Paddy Brennan - 3 minutes ago

SHARE
Paddy Brennan on two Kempton Boxing Day rides
Kempton
1.15pm
Champagne Well
We have been happy enough with all three of his runs this season, despite being beaten on each occasion. And the good thing is that he has been dropped 5lb at the same time. I think he bumped into a decent one in Golan Fortune, who runs in the Kauto Star on this card, at Ludlow last time – the winner went into the race having been in good form over hurdles, and won well on his chasing debut – and I think a mark of 136 gives us chances in what is obviously a very competitive handicap. More rain, stepping down in trip, will be fine and hopefully cheek pieces will help, too.



3.35pm
Jarveys Plate
He didn’t run up to his best when we last saw him at Perth in September but the handicapper has dropped his chase and hurdles mark 3lb to 138, and that underestimates his raw talent. That is a fair mark on his win over hurdles at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day last season and we know he was even better over fences at Chepstow last October. He goes well fresh, too. However, this is no easy task off top weight.

ALAN KING

Canelo bids for Rowland Meyrick glory at Wetherby on Boxing Day
By Geoff Lester Posted December 23, 2020 In Latest News 0
December 23

We start Boxing Day with our November Handicap hero On To Victory taking on three previous winners in the opening novices’ hurdle at Kempton.

You can forget On To Victory’s flop on the all-weather at the Sunbury course in November – Alan said he hated the polytrack surface – and, arguably two miles on the level stretches his stamina.

However, Alan is keen to get him going again over hurdles, a sphere in which he showed plenty of promise last season, and, though it looks a decent race, he tells me the horse has been working well at home.

We have two other runners at Kempton, and, assessing their chances, Alan added:”William H Bonney goes for the novices’ handicap chase, and I was pleased the way he travelled and jumped when finishing third on his debut over fences in a two-miler at Newbury last month,

“We are keen to try him over further, and, though he did not stay this two and a half over hurdles in his younger days, if he is going to get that trip anywhere it is probably Kempton, plus the fact that his chasing mark is 125, and he reached 137 at one time over hurdles.

“We also run another of our Royal Ascot winners, Coeur de Lion, in the two miles and five handicap hurdle there. He ran ok over three miles at Newbury’s Ladbroke meeting, but I think this is more his trip over hurdles.”

Finally, we have Canelo running in the prestigious Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby. Alan said:”He won well at Aintree and was then staying on well at the finish when runner-up to Cap du Nord at Newbury, so stepping him up to three miles should suit him.”


FWIW

I’d also be wary of Alan King’s record in Wetherby handicaps…3/47 | 6% S/R | -£36.04 – 64% below exp.

Dan Skelton previews his Boxing Day runners at Kempton and Wetherby



We have been flat out getting ready for Christmas and I am pleased to say we are now all set for Boxing Day, which hopefully will be a big day for the stable.

We will have runners at Kempton and Wetherby, with Harry riding at Kempton. He has a good chance in the first race where we have Third Time Lucki (12.40).

I have had this race in mind for him for a bit, after it looked like it was going to be way too soft for him at Ascot, which it was in the end.

I am looking forward to running him on a track like this and on better ground. I think he is a very good horse who can go very close here.

Alnadam (13.15) runs in the novices handicap chase to which he brings a nice bit of form from both of his runs this year. The rain is a help and I’d like to think he can be very competitive again. He is in very good form at home and looks like he is a much better chaser than hurdler.

Shan Blue (13.50) runs in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. Again this is a race I have had in mind for him all season. He looked good over 3m at Wetherby. He hasn’t run since but that’s not a concern. His work has been good, his jumping has been good. We go there full of optimism and the track will not be a problem.

Riggs (15.35) contests the last. He won last time and this is a step up in grade. I wanted to find the best ground we could for him because I think he was finding it hard work in the end at Uttoxeter, where he probably won despite the conditions. I’ve been happy with how he looks and how he has been going.

At Wetherby we start with Global Harmony (11.50) who won last time at Wincanton. She is a nice progressive mare who I think will again go very well.

Shannon Bridge (13.28) runs in a two and a half mile handicap. Bridget won on him last year at Uttoxeter over two and a half. Maybe I’ve been guilty of thinking 3m is his trip, when it is actually two and a half so we will give that another go.

We also have Spiritofthegames (14.05) in the Rowland Meyrick. He carries top weight. Normally he would go to Cheltenham and run in a big handicap there and finish placed. We thought if we keep doing that we will only get the same result.

So we are mixing things up a bit here. I’ve been very happy with him and look forward to seeing him run.

Supremely Lucky (14.40) runs in a handicap hurdle. It doesn’t look like he really likes fences that much despite being a big scopey horse by Milan.

I think he might be better over hurdles so we are giving them a try. He’s been well at home.

Happy Christmas

Dan

Tom Scudamore: “One For The Team could cause an upset”

Coral ambassador previews his Boxing Day rides
13.15 Kempton – Hold The Note
He ran a lot better last time at Cheltenham. Three miles may have been stretching him so going back to two and a half miles on soft ground seemed to suit him better. He led them a merry dance for a long way. He’s always had plenty of ability. I’d like to think he’ll have a good solid chance.

13.50 Kempton – One For the Team
I really like this horse. Yes we have a lot find with some of the opposition. We need to find 20lbs with If The Cap Fits and 12lbs with Shan Blue. But his performance last time was a really good one behind Next Destination.

I would like as much rain as possible as he wants the softer ground. The more emphasis on stamina the better. Whatever he does on Saturday he is going to be a very nice horse for the future.

You can pick holes in all of them. If The Cap Fits has been beaten. The Big Breakaway had been beaten. They’ve always thought a lot of Shan Blue and he’s now starting to live up to his reputation but he still has to improve again.

I like my horse a lot. He could cause a bit of an upset.

15.00 Kempton – Black Op
This is a nice ride to pick up in the Ladbrokes King George. On the face of it he has plenty to find but he was a classy hurdler and has beaten Lostintranslation. He’s yet to fully translate that hurdles form to chasing, but he finished second in the Kauto Star last year, so has form round the track.

His confidence has improved over fences and he just didn’t seem to get home over the longer trip in the Ladbrokes Trophy last time out. Tom George trained a big priced outsider, Double Shuffle, to be second in the King George a few years ago and Black Op is at least as good if not better than that horse.

It would not surprise me at all if Black Op is still travelling well turning into the straight and who knows what happens from that point on.

Clan Des Obeaux is a very good horse but he had a hard race at Haydock last time out. Cyrname is the best horse in the race but flopped last year. They’ve all got question marks against them. It’s a much more open race that you might think.

15.35 Kempton – Let’s Get At It
He’s having his first start for Nick. He’s had a bit of time off so hopefully he can be competitive though I’m sure he’ll improve for it.

Tom

Richard Johnston

King George day at Kempton is always one of the highlights of the season and it’s a shame there won’t be any racegoers there this year, but it’s obviously a very difficult time. I have a couple of rides on Boxing Day and although the declarations won’t be out for the 27th for a couple days, I expect to be riding Gumball against Shishkin in the Wayward Lad.

Kempton, Boxing Day

KALOOKI – 1:50pm Kempton
I was really impressed with him on his chasing debut at Newbury and I don’t think he quite ran up to that form last time behind Next Destination back at Newbury. The ground was a bit lively but it should be on the slower side at Kempton which will help him. There’s not a lot between them on official ratings and I think he’s got a very good chance in what looks an open race.

He should take a step forward from that last run and seemed in very good order when schooling on Monday. He’s still on the upgrade and it would be lovely to win the Kauto Star again after doing so on La Bague Au Roi a couple of years ago. She had a fantastic novice chase season, with the highlight of her career being this race two years ago. She’s recently been retired and she gave us some wonderful memories.

3:00pm Kempton – King George
Paul Nicholls doesn’t have a bad record in this race with just the 11 wins and he looks to hold a very strong hand again. Clan Des Obeaux ran an excellent race at Haydock behind a course specialist who adores heavy ground. We know he loves this track having won the race for the past two years, while the better ground will suit. He’s the one they all have to beat.

But I was impressed with the way Cyrname jumped, travelled and stayed in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. Most people thought he couldn’t go left-handed before that so coming back to a flat, right-handed track may suit him even more. He surely won’t be far away.

I wouldn’t write off Lostintranslation, though. He hated the ground at Haydock and will be much better suited to conditions on Boxing Day. I rode him in the Scilly Isles back in 2019 and he’s a very good horse. I think you’ll see a big improvement from him on the better surface.

PUSH THE TEMPO – 3:35pm Kempton
I haven’t sat on him before but I’ve ridden against him plenty of times and he’s a nice ride to pick up for Robert Stephens. He was fourth in the Silver Trophy back in October which reads well and if he can reproduce that here he will have a decent each-way chance.

Kempton, Sunday 27th

GUMBALL – 1:20pm Kempton
I really think Kempton will suit him. He was very impressive at Uttoxeter in October and then he was running a massive race at Cheltenham last time when falling at the second last. We need to bounce back from that but he seems in really good form at home. We’re under no illusions, Shishkin will be very hard to beat, although he’ll have to run up to a fair mark to beat my horse.

Chepstow, Sunday
2:50pm Chepstow – Welsh Grand National
The conditions are going to be really testing at Chepstow and you’re going to need a horse that stays really well. Secret Reprieve was very good last time and he has the perfect racing weight, but he has to prove he gets the trip. There are plenty in there like Yala Enki and Cloudy Glen who will relish the test.

It was a brilliant day four years ago when I won the Welsh National on Native River and the Tizzards then did it again two years later with Elegant Escape. The race has been named in Colin’s daughter Kim’s memory this year and it would be lovely for everyone if they were to win it again with Christmas In April.

Finally, I would like to wish everyone Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. It’s been such a tough year for so many people and hopefully things are going to get a lot better in 2021.

Timeform put forward a tip at each of the six meetings set to take place on Boxing Day.

Hollymount Holly - 11:50 Wetherby

My Timeform Tracker You need to be registered and logged in to use Timeform's horse tracker.
Find out more about My Timeform Tracker

Point and bumper winner Hollymount Holly shaped with promise when runner-up on her debut over hurdles at Wincanton in March, pulling seven lengths clear of a subsequent winner, and she is of obvious interest on her return to action. It was encouraging how well she stuck to her task when tackled at Wincanton, so this step up to just shy of two and a half miles should suit. She remains open to improvement over hurdles.

One Cool Poet - 13:40 Leopardstown

One Cool Poet's form took off in 2019 and he memorably won three times on the Flat during the Galway Festival before bagging a big prize on Irish Champions Weekend. He has not run over hurdles since showing that markedly improved form, so he could be very well treated on his return to jumping from a lowly mark of just 102. He posted an encouraging effort when beaten less than a length on the Flat at Dundalk last week and is an extremely interesting runner for Matthew Smith, a trainer who has been going well all season.

Shan Blue - 13:50 Kempton

Shan Blue could hardly have taken better to chasing and has posted two hugely impressive, wide-margin wins at Wetherby. His jumping looked a big asset when he justified strong support in a two-and-a-half-mile novice chase on his debut over fences, putting his rivals to the sword from a long way out. He followed that up with an even more impressive display over three miles at the same course, defying a penalty with ease, and he has all the tools to make up into a high-class staying chaser.

Asterion Forlonge - 14:35 Limerick

This is a fascinating Grade 1 and four of the five runners have the Timeform 'small p' attached to their rating, indicating improvement is expected. Pencilfulloflead heads the ratings after his impressive defeat of Latest Exhibition over two and three-quarter miles at Punchestown, but the drop in trip doesn't look a plus and preference is for Asterion Forlonge. Asterion Forlonge was hugely impressive when winning a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Leopardstown in February on just his second start over hurdles, but a tendency to jump right cost him when sent off favourite for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. He also jumped right on his chasing debut at Punchestown last month, but it didn't prevent him beating a subsequent winner by six lengths, and he remains an exciting prospect.

Tedham - 14:45 Wincanton

Tedham was pulled up on his chasing debut at Exeter last month, running no sort of race, but he looks interesting on his return to hurdling with good-value 7-lb claimer Kevin Brogan booked. Tedham hasn't scored since winning on handicap debut over this course and distance nearly two years ago, but he has been lightly raced and has shaped as if having a bigger effort in his locker. This trip is arguably shorter than ideal nowadays but testing conditions should at least put a premium on stamina.

Papa Stour - 15:30 Wolverhampton

Papa Stour has progressed well since joining Stuart Williams, proving successful on three of his five starts, including the last two. Papa Stour was easy to back on his first start for eight months at Kempton in November but he picked up where he left off, sticking to his task well to prevail by half a length. That form his working out well, with the runner-up scoring next time, and Papa Stour still looks fairly treated after going up 4 lb. Papa Stour won over this course and distance for his previous yard so will have no problem under these conditions.


By Timeform — published 24th December 2020

We've used the unique Timeform Flags to pick out a bet on Boxing Day.

Flags are an evolution of Timeform's long-standing practices. Collectively they represent a unique set of modern and useful innovations to give you even more of an edge.

Shan Blue - 13:50 Kempton

Flags: Top-Rated, Horse In Focus

Shan Blue was not one of the leading novice hurdlers last season but he looks set to take high rank in the novice chase division based on two hugely impressive displays at Wetherby. He scored by 14 lengths on his chasing debut and then showed even better form to defy a penalty on his latest outing, scoring by 16 lengths after putting in a scintillating round of jumping. The runner-up has since paid Shan Blue a compliment by winning a handicap on her next outing. Shan Blue has all the tools to make up into a high-class chaser and looks the one to beat in this Grade 1 event.

Nicky Henderson's star chaser Altior has been ruled out of his planned comeback in the Betfair Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown on Saturday as a result of the ground conditions.

Speaking on Friday night, Henderson said: "It is with a heavy heart we have decided that Altior is not going to run. We simply don't want to bottom him again given what happened last year."

dot ie

AKD
Can you email me mate.
luckycorky at yahoo doe ie

Thanks