BEST of the BETS

Wow, serious drift, the markets seem to be getting a lot wrong this week, well done

Fav looks a serious improver in this race, good luck gents

Wonder if anyone invested, reckon connections have made a few quid the last week, has the genes to improve with age


http://www.kublerracing.com/2018/10/share-in-outrage-for-sale/

815, looks competative, one that catches the eye is Star Quality. Class 2 winner on Polytrack, her pedigree is all stamina but she’s mainly been campaigned at 7 since France. Her mile runs in the U.K. have been class 2 or above, class 4 tonight. It is competative, Barrons and others are live dangers so I’ll play ew

Star Quality 10-1 Bet365

Would have thrown my cup of tea at the tv if I’d been on the 3rd, glad I wasn’t, nice winner

Boom

845 - Two of interest at decent prices

Broken Wings, a maiden who’s best effort came here over 1 mile, has been sprinting recently which has potentially masked her current wellbeing, could just be that 7f is the sweet spot for her


Knowing Glance, 1 all weather run, here in class 3, is a 7f turf winner at carlisle, and it might just be that a stiff course is best for him


Back both

Broken Wings @ 16-1 general
Knowing Glance @ 14-1 general

610 - Having a shot at the fav under a big weight. Euro No More appeals down in class but I’m concerned about her staying the trip so will go for Mulhima who has a nice weight in this


Mulhima

540 - Looks a two horse race, that’s what the betting suggests. I just prefer the colt over the filly despite his feminen looking name

Marechal Ney

Well a big priced 2nd and 1st (Fieldsman) Griffiths certainly has that October monkey off his back in 2018.

Cheers, favs being smashed down there today, pushing out prices

Wotadoll trainer sounded very confident, she’s rated 61, they have her in a listed race on Saturday!

Good post, it’s another piece in the puzzle isn’t it. As it’s a stat it’s important to check the statistical significance, if your using flat stats then it’s the exp and Archie figures. If most of his runners are outsiders in the betting then it may not be significant, but if a lot of his runners are fancied and don’t run well in a certain month then there could be something in it.

With regards Archimedes I think the drift is excessive and if it’s just due to market forces then he looks a good bet at 20-1. He was 7-2 fav at the off the other day and a line can be put through that run as it played up in the stalls and the blind was removed late, hard to see why it’s 20-1 today, but if it’s 20-1 because everyone knows the trainer stops training them in October and sends them out in the field to enjoy the good life then it’s a different matter. You can get yourself into knots with stats like this, it’s hard to see the wood for the trees, he has had winners in November


It’s a long way from the Griffiths yard and I’m sure there were similar races he could have chucked his two runners (Fieldsman, 330) in at catterick if he is just running them down the handicap. Good luck if
you play.

Just had my Mont Kiara bet refunded by Bet365

Ryan’s lost all chance as the stall wouldn’t open

Was surprised Top Boy won though, first time he’s won beyond the minimum trip, but was first time in a class 5 handicap

Surprised Joe didn’t pick up on it

Don’t like the jockey booking on Little Palaver, stable and horse in good form though, gl

Don’t like the Johnston fav, it’s a big ask of a newbie to win a race on this ground/track

Plenty of juice in the ground just hope there is some juice in its hcap mark, good luck

Great ride by Frankie, he had a few cards in his favour and played them to perfection, had her in the right place throughout

Enable for me, she has the best form, she is the best drawn of the fancied runners, looks an easy task, looks a below par Ark to me.