BEST of the BETS

poor run and looked knackered halfway. im very worried that Nickys horses have gone over the top. This was a lightly raced horse yet disappeared to nothing in strides. Very worried about Altior now. luckily it looks like the fat oaf, sorry, champion trainer is going to bottle wit with Cyrname so maybe all not lost but i am worried about Hendersons stable

Good couple of ew bets that were both a bit unlucky but writing was on the wall for the 2yo....4/1 out to 9/1 and falls out the stalls! Oh well on a poor day a profits a profit!

Cheers fin....really annoying tho that Johnson just hangs on having been god awful on my selections at Cheltenham and aintree! Mullins quietly fancied kenford lady in the 1st but couldn’t see it myself! Had a tenner ew but gutted i didnt just bet blind! Good for seamus tho, hes a good bloke

wow, thats harsh. Sorry mate and that 40/1 winner hurts. Greek Kodiac and Millionaire Waltz need following wil pop up sooner rather than later. The others sadly looked tired and over the top. Its weird how racing works. on weds O Brien was very confident about Cap Soleil and yet today he thought it had no chance. Fine margins as they say. And Hendersons winner was totally dismissed by the stable (thus 5/1 to 16/1) and of course bolts up on the bridle!

thats nearly it for me on the jumps, just Punchestown to go where Henderson is having a lot of runners...just a tad worried theyve had a longer season than normal due to the weather.

my flat fancies are nearly always Lambourn based horses and has Lambourn has no winter to talk of, they are way ahead of normal, thus Baldings mad form and others.

Tough day mate but theres always tomorrow!!

Well that was awful! Cap hate the ground, hendersons wins when the biggest drifter of the year and of course Beringer wins. No real harm done thankfully

Poor day so far and summed up by Kupitana jumping the last well and the challenger who looked all over the winner blundering! Good ride by Cobden tho and will be a good summer horse.

Millionaire Waltz ran a stormer and got worried out of third by the Godolphin hoards. I think paul Cole is going to have a great season with his 2yos

just hope Cap Soleil can do the business but vibes dont sound great. a difficult day so glad small stakes were stuck to.

I heard earlier that Antaginise is fancied at Newcastle tomorrow 16/1 at 320. Ive also taken 66/1 for the 2000 guineas for a few pence. my Smart man is not normally far off, but admittedly thats usually with his 2yos

Hmmmm, good start. Jenkins ran ok in 7th, Watan drifted out to 14/1 and ran like a 33/1 shot! Luckily avoided losing anymore money on Yafta!! knew it was fancied but i just cant have Crowley. where did he find that trouble from? hannons are really miffed they have to keep using him by the owners. Anyhoo i sabved my cash as i thought win or nowhere.

up on the day so cant com,plain on a quiet one 9 i do like Matt griffiths...he really is a star of the future) and that horse has a fantastic attitude for racing .

May have a max bet tomorrow

Hi Mugz, just spotted this! How does he make it pay? good owners, shrewd betting and selling on anything thats decent. Hes very popular around Lambourn and had plans to move right up the upper galllops. He also had a first class tutorledge (especially with early 2yos) with Paul Cole and then learned about dual racing with David Elsworth when he was at whitsbury.

He is a shrewd punter as well and nearly had it off in the Spring Cup with Indeed only just beaten at 50/1.....most of yard and immediate neighbours were on.

he gets on with thins quietly and never overstretches. he wanted to move to a bigger yard (36 odd?) as he wants to concentrate on 2yos hoping he can find the right material for a Godophin sell on.

He earns enough from prizemoney and bets to keep the yard going but also does freelance work. The bigger trainers support him (Lambourn is a big family) and lets him gallops his with theirs when he thinks he has a good one.

Cheers guys...pity the winning jock wasnt on walkinthesand! He would have won methinks but still a cracking day

good hit and those on last night owe you a beer or 10!!

yeah Dodd i agree, ran ok in 6th and got buffetted a few times...promising

Cheers guys, that was impressive! Fully vindicated putting brace up. Elseworths in as well, if castafoire wins ill send uou a postcard from the West Indies!!

Brilliant stuff wby, what a price!

Dodd, they wanted 7lb off which means hes well in now as its a hcap. Nico didnt really have a choice as 7lb is a great advantage and connor is top class. Having said that its worrying mf is being backed. Off to newbury in a while so will know more then

Im chuffed for Paul Cole, he used to be a brilliant 2yo trainer and there were good words spoken about this. He did it nicely as well with a smart turn of foot

I wouldn’t touch any of thise 4! The winner will come from this years novices

Agree with AKD. Value is everything and a side issue is that if you are constantly beating the book you know you are on the right track. a 2/1 winner can afford to lose twice before hes ground zero. A 16/1 winner can afford to lose 15 times. So if you are constantly backing 10/1 shots at 33/1 (with luck of course but lucks needed on a an odds on shot...ask Apples Jade!) , well it doesnt need explaining. Yes youve got to win or place but if you are on a 10/1 shot (at 33/1) the chances of placing , mathematically at least, are higher and youve got a fabulous reward, Gambles do win as we know, but silent gambles win more

I usually deal in prices 5/1 plus and they have to be value or i dont bet (or something exceptional like Champ). I imagine AKD is the same. If i think the 2/1 shot is 5/1 in my tissue i cant back it but if i think a 6/1 shot should be 3/1 ill back it. Its not rocket science.

Thats why you take losers on the chin. The bigger the prices, the longer the losing run, but the rewards enable you to build profit rather than just floating around break even on false short price horses.

you can sometimes apply this theory with trainers. Roger Varians for instance. invariably shorter than they should be, so ill target a race where he has a runner knowing there will be value in the rest of the field. he had a big rep runner on Tues (i think) that had achieved nothing but still went off 8/13 so backing the 2nd fav or 3rd fav at 4/1 and 6/1 wasnt too difficult decision as the tissue had the 4/1 shot at 6/4 , then Varians and the 3rd fav 3/1...value, and guess what the Varian horse gets easily turned over 9in fact it was third). Yes, he will also win (good trainer) but the rewards are poor as his stable dogs bark the loudest in Newmarket !

So value is not an exact science, but if your constantly getting value (and with a fair wind), you will make money

Peregrine, i do dislike the bloke but not paranoid (my dislike is a bit tongue in cheek. Personally i dislike him as hes been rude to my party, but as a trainer I admire him), after all its still a game and if...when, he wins the championship it will be a well done by me.

Im genuinely after others views as i am a bit paranoid how the handicapper arrives at his decision. Times, i agree are important, but for one good time ie a performance, what about the 10 lousy times when he lost and the average times when he won? if he had said "that performance at Ascot would make him the best chaser ie just on that one race" ..i could probably find solace, but its done it once and once only. Altior keeps beating the best around and no its times are not great as its usually won easing down.

Good debate and really good input, ill suppose we will never know til they meet. im with you Peregrine, im not sure it didnt look a bit injured at Chelt and maybe missing Liverpool will puthim spot on. I pray hes not a horse coming towards the end of his tether and if hes going to beat by Cyrname, i hope its a thrilling race of no mistakes and the best horse wins.

The handicapper is a buffon! Therunner up has been beaten in run of the mill handicappers and the Cross Country horses wouldnt win an ordinary race if they tried. The BHA making asses of themselves again. i love Tiger Roll but winning a grade C handicap doesnt make you a worldbeater. The same buffon that thinks Cyrname is the best chaser in Britain despite only having a 40% win rate!

fantastic view...but Kingsclere is actually in hampshire! Its one of those weird ones that come under the Lambourn valley ie hampshire, Berkshire, Oxon and Wiltshire! people think Lambourn is a little town, its not, the valley takes in 4 counties!

Uncle Toby was only a few miles down the road in Fyfield where i spent many happy days watching Morley Street et al gallop. While Ian (then Andrew) were producing champion flat jocks, Toby was producing Adrian Maguire, AP Mccoy et al. This whole balding family are fantastic people and surprisingly down to earth.

The facilities are fabulous and i was lucky enough to see one of their best ever horses, Silver Fling do a gallop before it had ever seen a racecourse and win at Newbury on its debut backed from 12/1 to 6/4 fav! John matthias rode it because Tony Ives was injured. I had 3 months wages on it ew at 10/1! what a day in the mid 80s!

Sorry chaps. Hammered into 5/2 as well. Sadly thats what you get with channons runners. Was told they really fancied it (as market suggested) but total plums!