BEST of the BETS

Seemed to be travelling well in front 3, but found nothing and weakened right out of it to tail off, most disappointing.

LSP: -7.39 (win), -8.72 (place)

2:45 Leicester - can’t be very confident because of the type of race it is, but BALLYELLIS is in good form with 4 wins and 4 2nds from his last 8 runs. Won another claimer by 17 lengths at Huntingdon under this jockey on 3rd last start, this looks a weaker race if anything so no reason why he shouldn’t run well. At these weights he is 8 lbs ahead of the 2nd fav Baracalu. Percy finished last on all weather last week, but earlier 2nd behind Baracalu gives him a chance, he is closest to the selection on weight terms as he is only 3 lbs behind so I will put him in for the forecast spot.

Selection - Ballyellis @ 10/11, fun forecast with Percy

Good luck.

Have to admit it was a really bad decision yesterday backing an odds on shot in a claimer, I should know that horses running in these type of races are not the most reliable.

LSP: -8.39 (win), -9.72 (place)

4:20 Ffos Las - BATTLEOFTHESOMME was a bit disappointing last twice but had earlier won well at Southwell on stable debut, and there is still possibility of improvement. And this looks a very winnable race with next 4 horses in betting having a combined record of 0 from 74. Jamie Snowden has a good record here with 11 wins from 52 that improves to 10 from 27 (+9 LSP) with runners that are in first 3 in betting. Bredon Hill Road has a good record here, but is 13 years old now, he has place chances as does Royal Act who is 1 lb higher than when a close 2nd over c&d in November.

Selection - Battleofthesomme @ 7/2

Good luck.

4th yesterday.

LSP: -9.39 (win), -10.72 (place)

8:00 Dundalk - couldn’t decide between 2 horses here, so backed both to half point split stake. TYNAMITE & BELLICK both ran well here 3 weeks ago (in different races). Tynamite was 1 1/4 length 2nd over 7 furlongs, and Bellick was beaten under a length over 5 furlongs. They have met twice before, both times over this c&d (April 2019), Tynamite was ahead by 1/2 length from 5 lbs worse terms than today, and a length behind from 9 lbs worse terms than today. Both those runs suggest that Tynamite should be comfortably ahead today, but Bellick still seems to be improving and form of his last run looks better than the favourite’s so I can’t ignore him especially as he is a much bigger price now. Paved Paradise is potentially well handicapped but she has beaten a total of 5 runners on her last 3 starts so clearly needs to come back to form.

Selections - Tynamite (9/4) & Bellick (11/1)

Good luck.

:cheer:

Thanks mate. It only counts as half a winner as I backed two in race, but better than losing. Well backed before the off to 7/1 and just held on.

LSP: -6.04 (win), -9.65 (place)

Half an apple is better than none m8. :clap: :clap:

Thanks mate.

4:26 Musselburgh - Southfield Vic is the best horse in here, and comes here looking for a 5-timer, but if he maybe vulnerable anytime it maybe first time out as his record fresh is not great (0 from 4 when running after 6 month+ break, 3 of those occasions he was favourite including odds on twice). Mr Mercurial was disappointing when beaten at odds on in a weaker race on his last run under rules, and was only 6th in a point to point recently. Nine Altars was well beaten in this race 2 years ago, and Border Breaker is very difficult to fancy on recent form. That leaves me with other three as possibles to take advantage if the favourites underperform. There are some positives and negatives about all 3, so I have backed 2 out of them. BAND OF BLOOD has a very good record fresh, and also very good record at this time of year with 3 wins from 6 runs in February, but he is with a new trainer now so we have to see if he still runs well first time. He is rated 9 lbs behind the favourite, and along with Big Casino he has one of the better jockeys on board. Big Casino is 14 years old now and having his first run under rules for nearly 3 years, though he has been running well in points. Other one I have backed is BUCK DANCING, rated 115, only 5th (beaten 25 lengths) at Taunton last month but that looked a very good hunter chase so I think he can do better today, has inexperienced jockey though (she is also the trainer).

Out of the two I fancy Band of Blood more but will split my stake equally. Small bet keeping in mind, that for either of these two to win, we need the favourite to underperform.

Selections - Band of Blood (7/1) & Buck Dancing (12/1)

Good luck.

Was right to oppose the favourite, but not with the right horses, poor run from both.

LSP: -7.04 (win), -10.65 (place)

3:00 Leoapradstown - Gordon Elliott is 0 from 7 in this race, but BATTLEOVERDOYEN maybe his best chance so far. The closest Elliott has got so far in this race was the 2nd place for Don Cossack six years ago, DC was rated 152 at the time, Battleoverdoyen has already earned a rating 155 after 3 wins from 3 over fences. Faugheen, winner of 10 Grade 1s, is greatly respected, he has done well winning on both chase runs, but a 12 year old against a 7 year old still on the up means it isn’t too difficult a decision for me. It’s not just a 2 horse race of course, but I feel Battleoverdoyen has best chase form and there is still more to come from him.

Selection - Battleoverdoyen @ 15/8

Good luck.

the very best of luck with yr selection buddy.:up: :up:

Thanks mate.

Fell, but was already beaten at the time. Maybe I need to start laying these instead of backing lol.

LSP: -8.04 (win), -11.65 (place)

5:00 Wolverhampton - BILLYOAKS got his first win at 7 furlongs here last month, all 8 of his previous wins had come at 5 & 6 furlongs. That was a really weak race, but 2nd, 3rd & 4th were all 7f winners so at least it shows that he stays the trip well enough and is worth another try over it. Closely matched with Bold Decision over 6f here on next start, the latter probably has more improvement to come though, and wide draw at Lingfield last time was no help, so I feel he has a good chance of being in first 3 today from a good draw. This probably not a bad race for a class 6, Elusif won at Kempton on Saturday but 5 lbs penalty makes things tougher, Caledonia Laird won this race last year from 1 lb lower mark but for a different trainer.

Selection - Billyoaks @ 8/1

Good luck.

Placed 3rd, but well behind the front two.

LSP: -9.04 (win), -10.74 (place)

4:50 Kempton - I mentioned this one in the Irish runners thread already, have now backed FUNNY LITTLE WAYS. 6th of 14 on handicap debut over 7f at Dundalk last time but was beaten only 2 lengths. 3 of the horses that finished ahead of her have all run well since, winner winning by 4 lengths from 5 lbs higher, 3rd horse 3rd from 1 lb higher and 5th horse beaten a neck from same mark, so form looks pretty solid. Drops to 6 furlongs here but I don’t think that will be a problem. Related to several winners, including half sister to George Bowen (won from a mark of 102 over this c&d), and to Mr Win and Mutahaady (6f winners from marks of 100 & 86 respectively). So if pedigree is any guide then she should be bit better than her current mark of 59. Trainer is 2 from 7 (+3.50 LSP) at this course, Ben Curtis, who has been in great form since start of year, is riding for him only for 2nd time. Only previous ride he had for him was 2 years ago when a very close 2nd (5/1) behind an odds on shot.

At big prices, Upstage (33/1) could run well, beaten 4 lengths on handicap debut over c&d last time. 2 lbs lower today and better drawn, she also has a nice pedigree - half sister to Group 3 winner Projection.

Selection - Funny Little Ways @ 3/1

Good luck.

Big drift to 6/1, finished a never nearer 5th.

LSP: -10.04 (win), -11.74 (place

7:00 Newcastle - this looks a good race, only 6 runners but not many of them can be ruled out completely. Athollblair Boy has a very good record here, only finished out of the frame twice from 13 runs over c&d, should be thereabouts again but he still remains a bit above his last winning mark. Double Up has the class but hasn’t won for over 2 years and finished last on his first try here last month, despite that I wouldn’t rule him out. I have done a small bet on NATIONAL ANTHEM, he is not the most straightforward, was disappointing last time after being reluctant to go in stalls, but that looked a very good race, 3 horses in front of him are all Southwell specialists and all were in good form. Down in class here, I hope he can bounce back to form. Trainer’s very poor record here (2 from 57, -48 LSP) is a bit of worry, but he did win with his last runner here a couple of weeks ago.

Selection - National Anthem @ 7/2

Good luck.

2nd.

LSP: -11.04 (win), -10.66 (place)

3:30 Kempton - bit of a long shot this, as there is some doubt about stamina but the price is big enough so I have taken a little chance on FIXED RATE. Only had 4 runs over fences, won first two of those last season. 2 runs this season have seen one really good run and one poor run, finished 2nd first time out in a good race at Aintree in December, but was disappointing when pulling up (went off 2nd fav) in class 2 handicap at Musselburgh on New Year’s Day. That was a very good race, and form is working out well with 2 of the first 5 finishers winning next time and another one placing. This is a drop in class to class 3, but it is still a very competitive race so I will be happy with a place. Main question mark is about stamina, as selection has never raced beyond 2 mile 6 furlongs (won over that trip), if he can see out the extra 2 and half furlongs then he has a chance.

Selection - Fixed Rate @ 16/1

Good luck.

Only 6th or 7th, stayed in that position throughout, as they all did as order hardly changed through whole of 3 miles so funny race in that sense. Winner jumped very well though, looks a good horse.

LSP: -12.04 (win), -11.66 (place)

6:10 Wolverhampton - CLAP YOUR HANDS has won 3 of his 7 starts, winning easily last twice by 9 lengths and 5 lengths. It’s a big jump in class from 5 to 2 and he is 11 lbs higher but he has been winning so easily that I think he may overcome it especially with possibility of more improvement to come with step up to 2 miles for first time. Two main dangers appear to be the two that are proven in class, Charlie D and Island Brave, and both have good records here but both are still above their highest winning marks.

Selection - Clap Your Hands @ 13/8

Good luck.