BEST of the BETS

Drifted to 2/1, but won comfortably.

LSP: -10.00 (win), -10.92 (place)

Winner winner.......must be chicken for dinner

Well done AKD :clap: :clap:

Thanks, Fuzzy.

2:05 Chelmsford - I had picked NIGHT VOYAGER for the race at Southwell on Sunday before that meeting got abandoned, and here I am drawn towards him again in what looks a weak maiden. Finished 6th of 11 (beaten 4 lengths) @ 4/1 on debut, that form isn’t anything special but the winner was rated 73, and 4th and 5th who were half length ahead of selection are rated 67, so NV’s performance can be rated about 65-66. With the usual 2nd time improvement, he can be expected to run to low 70s today which may well be enough to win a race like this. There are couple of interesting newcomers, including the short priced favourite from Archie Watson, Watson usually has a good record on debut but his 3 newcomers so far this year have been poor, all 3 had one thing in common that all 3 drifted in betting, 3/1 to 5/1 (finished 7th), 7/4 to 11/4 (8th), 4/1 to 12/1 (last), so will have to see what happens with this one in betting today.

At big prices, I thought Alveda was really overpriced last night at 66/1, she is 25/1 now which is closer to what it should be. She finished 7th on her debut 3 months ago, race was won by a newcomer and horses that finished 2nd to 6th had all made the frame on their previous run so it probably wasn’t a bad race, she was beaten 12 lengths though so does need to improve plenty but it’s not impossible, but as I said the price has gone now.

Selection - Night Voyager @ 11/4

Good luck.

2nd behind the short priced favourite, other horse mentioned Alveda ran well for 4th.

LSP: -11.00 (win), -10.48 (place)

Giving my thoughts on the race below, but will only back selection if it drifts to evens or bigger.

2:55 Southwell - it is a difficult one, BADAYEL has easily the best form but it’s hard to back a horse with confidence at odds on that keeps finishing 2nd (interestingly, his brother Laikaparty also seems to have same problem, finished 2nd 3 times before winning at 4th attempt). Selection has finished 2nd on all 4 of his runs, the two horses that beat him most recently are now rated 85 & 82, so it can be argued that perhaps he has just been unlucky to come up against good horses and this looks his easiest opportunity so far. His main rival in betting is Snow Space, who finished 13 lengths behind the selection on debut. He could leave that run well behind him, in a similar way to Lion Tower did last month for same owners - he ran similarly to Snow Space on debut at Wolverhampton but won a few days later at Southwell on 2nd start. My problem with Snow Space is the drop to 6 furlongs, his dam was a 10f winner and related to Great Voltigeur (12f) winner Centennial, there are no winners at less than a mile in the immediate family. Only other runner with experience in this field is Ghost Buy, stablemate of the fav, but he is rated only 50 (24 lbs below fav) and has finished no better than 5th on 3 previous visits here. Other two are newcomers, and newcomers don’t have a great record in these 4yo+ races. Mick Appleby (trainer of Bluelion) has just 3 wins from 182 runners (including 0 from 26 here) on debut, though he did win with a 33/1 newcomer recently, and Bluelion does at least have pedigree for fibresand so I wouldn’t completely rule him out. Appleby also trained both his dam and dam’s sister (dam never ran here but her sister won here 3 times from marks of up to 79).

Sorry about the long post and even then have no definite selection at the end, but I wanted to explain why it is a difficult one. Badayel is a clear form choice, and I think at evens or better he would be worth backing even with the risks attached. But not at the 4/7, 8/13 currently on offer, Snow Space or even Bluelion may offer better value currently.

Good luck.

No movement in price even on the exchange, so leaving the race alone, just watching.

Badayel won as he should have that price. I don’t regret leaving it though.

2:00 Leicester - LICKPENNY LARRY was very unlucky last time, getting caught on the run in having traded at 1/100 in running. He can’t be blamed for it though, he got very tired in testing conditions over a trip that stretches his stamina, and he was giving 20 lbs to the winner (a gamble from Gary Moore yard at Fontwell). He is up 4 lbs and again has to give over a stone in weight to most of these, but at least this is a more suitable trip as he drops back to 2 miles, I think he can go well providing he has recovered from exertions of last run (18 days ago). This is a weak race for a class 4 and not much better than the one he won at Uttoxeter in November. His record is 3 wins from 4 when in first two in betting.

At bigger price, DUN BAY CREEK is not without a chance, and I will have a saver on him. He had shown absolutely nothing since winning a novice hurdle for Alan King 3 seasons ago, but gave some encouragement when 2nd @ 50/1 (albeit a well beaten 2nd) on his first handicap chase in December. Was disappointing again next time when only 6th of 12. But he has been dropped another 4 lbs and is still unexposed over fences so has an outside chance.

I have backed these to an 80/20 split stake.

Selections - Lickpenny Larry @ 7/2 (0.8 pt), Dun Bay Creek @ 14/1 (0.2 pt)

Good luck.

Drifted to 5/1 and 2nd again.

LSP: -12.00 (win), -9.48 (place)

Correction - LSP place should read -9.68

Backed one early for tomorrow.

1:20 Sandown - I hope I don’t regret deserting Faustinovick, whom I backed last time, but I was disappointed with how easily he weakened. While drop back in trip may help, lumping 12 stone 4 in this going won’t be easy so I am taking him on. I have taken a chance with KEEL OVER, who is yet to win under rules but showed some promise in 4 runs over hurdles in 2018, making the frame on 3 occasions. Returns from an absence of 435 days now, but long absences aren’t always a problem with David Bridgwater. Bridgwater has a very good record of 9 wins from 61 (+47 LSP) with horses returning from an absence of more than a year, also won with Fort Gabriel (16/1) last month who was returning from 500+ days absence. Another plus point is the record of bottom weights on heavy going. From last 14 runnings of this race, 4 have been run on heavy, and the record of horses carrying bottom weight in those 4 races is as follows - pulled up @ 8/1, won @ 10/3, 2nd @ 16/1, won @ 25/1.

Selection - Keel Over @ 18/1

Good luck.

Sandown off, so had a bet at Lingfield now.

4:40 Lingfield

Shortlisted - King Athelstan, It’s Nice Tobe Nice, Harbour Quay, Famous Destiny, Mistress Nellie

KING ATHELSTAN is in very good form, having won over c&d two runs ago and then failing by only a nose last time. Last defeat was against a very well handicapped c&d winner and the 3rd horse (1 length behind) had 3 places from 4 previous runs at the course, so form looks very solid. Gary Moore is in good form, and his runners are often worth following here when strong in betting. It’s Nice Tobe Nice had run fairly well on her debut here last year, is on a low enough mark and could go close if coming on for recent run. HARBOUR QUAY is 7 lbs lower than when beaten 4 lengths over c&d in March last year (was with a different trainer then), and recent runs over 10 furlongs strongly suggest he wants to return to this trip, so he is a big danger. Form of his trainer could be a concern, just 1 winner in last 4 months (35 runners).

Split stake (70/30) on King Athelstan (3/1) & Harbour Quay (6/1)

Good luck.

Only 3rd & 6th.

LSP: -13.00 (win), -9.16 (place)

2:55 Navan - difficult race to solve as most of these are still unexposed and it’s a case of which one can improve more. I have gone with BLANKETONTHEGROUND, who improved when 2nd on her handicap debut last time. Admittedly, that race didn’t appear to have much strength in depth but the winner had been in good form and finished 2nd upped to Grade 2 handicap next time. Selection does need to improve but could do so, as trainer often gets a win within first few runs in handicaps. Bay Ambition is another one that needs serious consideration, she was in 3rd place when falling two out in a similar race here in November, Gavin Cromwell has lots of runners here today but this could be his best chance. It was a tough choice but in these conditions I generally prefer to go for horses that are carrying less weight, and didn’t want to back more than one as this is the kind of race where you could back 4-5 horses and still not find the winner.

Selection - Blanketontheground @ 11/2

Good luck.

4th, got paid for 4th place on Betfair Sportsbook, but for this thread it’s recorded as a complete loss.

LSP: -14.00 (win), -10.16 (place)

4:15 Lingfield - CRITICAL THINKING has returned to form since teaming up with jockey Thomas Greatrex, with a 2nd, 1st & 3rd in 3 runs, and he still remains fairly treated on old form. Beaten half a length last time but that looked a competitive race with first 4 all in good form (winner was completing a hat trick, 2nd had finished 1st & 2nd on two previous runs and 4th had won his last 3 races). Selection does have better record at Wolverhampton (7f) but has won over this c&d too, his last run over this c&d (January 2019) he was beaten a short head in class 4 from a mark of 75, runs off 68 today so on that form he still looks well handicapped. One worry I have is that from stall 2 here, he could find himself boxed in and will need luck in running. Also there is a potential improver in Bugler Bob who could be a big danger, he won when stepped up to 7 furlongs last time and could still have more improvement over this trip. I think the winner will come from above two, veteran Pour La Victoire has place chances and Knowing Glance, who finished 8 lengths behind selection last time is entitled to finish closer from 7 lbs better terms today.

Selection - Critical Thinking @ 10/3, small reverse f/c with Bugler Bob

Good luck.

Only 5th, really disappointed with that result as the horse that had been beaten 8 lengths by selection last time goes and wins. I thought winner would finish close but 7 lbs alone cannot be enough to turn around 8 lbs deficit in a 7 furlongs race, and I didn’t think there were any other obvious factors but there you go. Results like that make you think why bother with form. 4 horses on my shortlist finished 1st, 3rd, 4th & 5th but still can’t find a way to pick the winners from shortlist.

LSP: -15.00 (win), -11.16 (place)

Onwards and upwards A onwards and upwards :smile: . I know how difficult it is to pick winners A :fear:

Thanks, Fuzzy.

Will keep trying.

1:45 Punchestown - Enda Bolger has a brilliant record in this race, having won 9 of its 14 runnings, and has a great chance with Yanworth, but it isn’t always his first string that wins. Out of those 9 wins, 1 was when he had just 1 runner in the race. Of other 8, 4 were won by his 1st string (LSP -2.25) and 4 by his 2nd string (+10.50), so JOSIES ORDERS cannot be ignored especially as he has finished 2nd (beaten short head) and 1st in this race for last two years. He needs to bounce back to form though as two runs this season have been poor. Other one I like in this is NEVERUSHCON, who was beaten only a length and half by Yanworth here in November but is 8 lbs better off today so must have a chance at the weights. He also ran fairly well at Cheltenham in December, finishing 5th when both Yanworth and Josies Orders failed to complete.

Out of the two, I prefer Neverushacon on form, and 11 of the 14 runnings of this race have been won by horses priced no bigger than 5/1. But given Josies Orders’ good record in this race, I have split my stake equally on the two.

Selections - Neverushacon (11/4) & Josies Orders (11/1), 50/50 stake

Good luck.

Neverushacon won @ 4/1, Josies Orders only 4th.

LSP: -13.03 (win), -11.31 (place)

WD AKD with Neverushacon