BEST of the BETS

4:50 Newmarket

Draw - sample size 21 races

Expected = 2.22, Low = 2.05, Middle = 2.05, High = 2.74

Slightly favouring high, but it could just be variance, so I would say draw should make little difference in this race, if at all.

Byline - easy winner of 5-runner handicap at Leicester last time, beating Musicality by nearly 3 lengths. That Leicester race has a good record, of 6 horses that ran in that race before running in this 4 finished in first 3. Up 8 lbs for that win though, and was previously well beaten in similar conditions here (albeit in higher class), so that is a concern.

Chairmanic - best two efforts on flat track of Haydock, including a win on soft, needs to improve on his 3rd/7 in a novice on Rowley course in June, but too soon to dismiss him as a flat track horse. Interesting jockey booking of Ryan Moore, who has an excellent record for Meehan - including 2 from 3 this year. Shortlisted.

Endowed - narrowly beaten from 3 lbs lower here last time, but on very different ground conditions. Course form is always useful though and if he handles the soft going (pedigree suggests he should be ok on it), he has a chance, though he likely doesn’t have as much improvement left as a few others.

Man Of Promise - close 3rd on only run as 2yo behind Mums Tipple and Molatham (Jersey winner), won maiden at Yarmouth on return with front two well clear of the rest, runner up beaten favourite off 91 at York last week. Strong form and has potential, could win but price is too short on handicap debut in my opinion.

Manigordo - was sent off 2nd fav for Somerville Stakes (Group 3) last year but was beaten 15 lengths. Had nothing to beat to land the odds on return, but finished last and 2nd last on next two runs. Down in class, and sire’s record on soft (10 from 47, +12 LSP) gives some hope but needs to run much better than he has this season.

Many A Star - non runner

Musicality - yet to finish out of first 2 in 3 runs. Easily beaten by Byline at Leicester, but 7 lbs better off today which puts him very close with that rival. All 3 runs so far on good to firm but soft going unlikely to be a problem, and I think it will be difficult to keep him out of first 3.

Owney Madden - won the valuable nursery at Ebor festival last year, 6th/10 & 4th/18 in two runs this year. Should be suited by soft going, but maybe doesn’t have as much improvement as a few others.

Treble Treble - non runner

Zim Baby - more exposed than others having had 12 runs already. Stays further than this, which will be a help in these conditions, but she is running against better horses than she normally does.

I have taken a chance on CHAIRMANIC, the only runner with winning form on soft. There is not much between Byline and Musicality, the latter is more consistent so may come out ahead in that battle, and Endowed also isn’t ruled out due to course form.

Bets - small win on Chairmanic @ 10/1, small place only on Musicality @ around 3.0 on exchange

Good luck.